JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 7:55 AM EDT424
FXUS63 KJKL 081155 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures at near, to slightly below, normal are
expected through early next week.
- Locally heavy rain and the threat for excessive rainfall is
present through the rest of the night and again on Monday.
- Some strong storms are possible on Monday, with the potential
for damaging wind gusts.
- Shower and storm chances then linger into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids,
though did beef up the initial band of mainly showers crossing
west to east through the central portion of the CWA for the next
hour or so. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows another early morning area of low pressure
moving through eastern Kentucky responsible for training showers
and a a few thunderstorms. Now the bulk of the convection has
faded out and lifted off to the northeast leaving plenty of clouds
and areas of fog behind. The I-64 corridor saw the most sustained
rainfall with an Advisory and Flash flood warning still in effect
there. Meanwhile, temperatures and dewpoints are rather mild and
uniform across the area - generally in the mid to upper 60s, amid
light southwest winds.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict broad troughing through the region with one last
substantive mid level wave passing through Kentucky this morning
and early afternoon. Just as this clears out in near zonal flow,
a much stronger trough pushes south into the northwestern part of
the Ohio Valley tonight. This will bring sharper height falls to
the Bluegrass State along with the approach of more mid level
energy through the day, Monday. The strength of the low aloft
will support a stout 3h jet streak running southwest to northeast
through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes - placing Kentucky in its
right entrance region - yielding of enhanced lift, Monday. This,
combined with a strong 850 jet will provide extra energy for
organized storms. The small model spread noted through Monday
evening continues to support using the NBM as the starting point
for the forecast grids with minimal adjustments needed - primarily
to add in some timing and storm evolution details from the latest
CAMs for PoPs and weather grids through Monday evening.
Sensible weather features a somewhat quieter period for
convection today, but looking for a much more active one on Monday
with strong to severe storms possible. Look for near normal high
temperatures today with scattered shower and storm activity around
through the afternoon and into the evening. After a lull tonight,
more organized storms will be on tap for Monday with severe ones
possible as damaging wind gusts will be the main concern. There is
also a lingering threat of heavy rains and flooding considering
there are a few places in eastern Kentucky with near saturated
soils. Storm evolution on Monday appears to favor a linear
structure QLCS setup moving west to east for late afternoon and
early evening. The gridded forecast has been crafted with that
idea in mind.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjustments to the PoPs per the latest CAMs guidance for timing
and magnitude through Monday evening. As for temperatures - did
not deviate far from the NBM guidance through the period given the
high moisture content - even tonight as low clouds look to linger.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
The extended adjustments from the NBM consisted of mainly
including terrain based changes for temperatures each night from
Tuesday through Thursday. It also looks like summerlike weather
will break out for the latter part of the work week before more
diurnally driven convection caps the heat each day into next
weekend. The NBM guidance numbers' return to near the center of
the ensemble spread lends confidence to its dry and warm solution
- late week.
The previous long term discussion follows:
At the beginning of the long term forecast period, Eastern Kentucky
will be situated southeast of an upper level low spinning over the
Great Lakes. The mid/upper level trough axis associated with this
low is expected to dig into the Ohio River Valley on Monday night,
bringing a surface cold front into the region with it. Out ahead of
this boundary, scattered showers and storms are expected. Likely
PoPs enter the forecast grids in the Bluegrass on Monday afternoon,
then spread southeast towards the Virginia state line as the evening
progresses. Rain chances gradually taper off on Tuesday morning, but
recent guidance suggests that the aforementioned cold front could
stall out near the CWA boundary. As a result, slight chance PoPs
remain in the forecast in the eastern third of the CWA on Tuesday,
but this activity is expected to be less intense than Monday's
convection.
Out ahead of the cold front on Monday, temperatures should warm into
the 80s, allowing for a corridor of sufficient CAPE for
thunderstorms. The LREF depicts a 60-80% joint probabilities of
exceeding 500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30 knots of effective bulk shear
out ahead of this front during peak diurnal heating on Monday
afternoon. This supports the notion that a few strong to severe
thunderstorms could be possible, and SPC has accordingly upgraded
the entire JKL CWA to a Slight (Level 2/5) Severe Weather Outlook
for Monday, June 9th. Damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail
look to be the primary hazard types in this frontally-forced set-up,
alongside the general thunderstorm threats for frequent lightning
and heavy rain. Given the rain potential and the antecedent wet
soils, WPC has highlighted the potential for isolated instances of
flash flooding on Monday in a Marginal (Level 1/5) Excessive
Rainfall Outlook. However, the highest PWAT values remain displaced
to the NW of the forecast area across much of the guidance suite,
largely due to the lingering influence of the dry air wrapped around
the backside of the previous system. In general, expect between 0.5
and 1 inches of rain with Monday's system. Locally higher totals are
possible where the strongest storms track, but the risk for
significant/widespread hydrological issues does not appear to be
particularly high on Monday at this moment in time.
In the wake of Monday night's frontal passage, westerly flow
throughout the column will foster slightly cooler temperatures on
Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s/near 80. Ridging begins to
build into the region overnight and then persists into
Wednesday/early Thursday. Such a set up favors the climatologically
conventional nocturnal ridge-valley temperature splits and perhaps
the formation of some river valley fog on Wednesday and Thursday
mornings. Expect AM MinTs in the low 60s atop ridges and in the 50s
in the cooler ridges. This mid-week pattern also points towards
atmospheric height rises and a warming trend. Afternoon highs could
challenge 90 degrees on Thursday afternoon before the pattern shifts
late in the forecast period. The long term forecast guidance points
towards an eastward shift in the ridging by next Friday, which would
veer flow to the SW and increase Gulf moisture return. Then, as
another trough ejects out of the Plains and into the Ohio River
Valley, precipitation chances would increase. Details remain
uncertain at this temporal range, but those with outdoor plans next
weekend should continue to monitor forecast updates, as a return to
active weather appears likely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
Again a mix of conditions prevailed at the start of the period.
The most concentrated area of showers was crossing west to east
through the heart of the aviation forecast area training a bit over
the same locations. In the precip area, ceilings and visibility
were generally in the IFR or LIFR range with MVFR or better noted
outside of it. Looking for most of the terminals to stay dry
through mid afternoon. Once daytime heating kicks in this morning,
the lower ceilings will rise as mixing deepens. This should allow
for largely VFR conditions to return to the region by early
afternoon. The diurnal heating may once again lead to
shower/thunderstorm development during the day, which would result
in localized sub-VFR conditions with their passage. Winds will be
light and variable early then from the southwest at 5 to 10 kts,
for the most part - away from any thunderstorms or stronger
showers.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GREIF/MARCUS
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 7:55 AM EDT---------------
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