LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 3:15 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...182
FXUS64 KLIX 302015
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
315 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025
A surface frontal boundary continues to gradually make its way to
the coast denoted by northwesterly surface flow on visible
satellite imagery meeting more west to west-southwest flow along
the Louisiana coast. This locally enhanced surface convergence has
aided in initiation of afternoon thunderstorms along the boundary
primarily stretching from Assumption Parish east to St. Bernard
Parish. This area of storms will be the primary focus for a
marginal threat of severe weather. Deep surface instability along
and south of the boundary (>3000 j/kg CAPE) and modest mid-level
drying has enhanced downdraft CAPE to >1000 j/kg. However, mid-
level lapse rates are only as high as 6 C/km and 0-6km bulk shear
on the southwest flank of the larger trough over the OH River
Valley is limited vertical growth of these thunderstorms. However,
the 0-3km environment is sufficient enough for a few storms to be
capable of large hail up to half-dollar size in diameter and
damaging downdraft or even wet microburst winds exceeding 60 mph.
Any waterspout/tornado threat with these storms will be mesoscale
driven by boundary interactions, but any spin up would be brief
and the environment does not support strong tornadoes.
The frontal boundary will continue to push southeast offshore
through the evening hours and things will gradually dry out into
Saturday as a weak high pressure system moves overhead.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025
A weak shortwave currently situated over Montana and the Dakotas will
round the eastern flank of the western CONUS ridge and ride the
longwave flow down through the Plains and over the northern Gulf
Coast by Sunday morning. This shortwave will likely aid in
initiating convection across the central Plains and this will dive
southeastward following the northwest flow pattern though it
doesn't appear likely this convection would sustain overnight as
it gets into the lower MS River Valley. That said, current timing
in global guidance indicates this shortwave could line up with
afternoon heating which could aid in kicking up a few showers and
storms along any remnant outflow boundaries or lake/sea breeze
interactions. Have bumped up PoPs slightly to reflect this.
By the start of next week the northwest flow pattern begins to
break down and high pressure and ridging begin to build over the
eastern CONUS. This will enable onshore flow to start back up on
the western flank of the Atlantic coast high. This will enable
moisture to gradually increase and with it more normal afternoon
summertime convection will be prevalent each day into midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025
SCT/BKN skies with afternoon showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms developing along multiple west to east boundaries
carrying towering cu across the area. Have added VCSH, PROB30s and
TEMPOs to terminals to reflect increasing SH/TS coverage this
afternoon. These SH/TS will follow the decaying frontal boundary
southeastward offshore around 00-02 UTC and VFR conditions will
prevail by 0600 UTC at all terminals. As the boundary passage
occurs, expect 5-10 knot winds to flip from westerly to more
northerly into the evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025
Winds will shift to a more west then northwest direction through
this evening and will and increase to 10-15 kt as a cold front moves
through. High pressure and a weak pressure gradient will keep winds
and seas benign through the weekend. A small window of very little
storm activity will occur by late morning Sat through a good
portion of Sun, but outside that window, chances for strong or
severe storms will remain. Onshore flow will slowly strengthen to
10 to 15 knots by mid week next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 61 85 63 85 / 10 0 0 20
BTR 66 86 67 87 / 10 0 0 30
ASD 65 86 65 87 / 20 0 0 20
MSY 73 86 71 88 / 20 0 0 20
GPT 66 86 67 85 / 30 0 0 20
PQL 64 86 64 87 / 30 0 0 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 3:15 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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