ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 5, 6:43 AM EDT618
FXUS61 KILN 051043
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
643 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will stall out in the region into early Saturday,
providing periods of showers and storms to through that time.
Seasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail until some slightly
drier air finally returns to the area into early next week. But until
then, several rounds of showers and storms are expected from time-
to-time.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The midlevel ridge axis continues to flatten as it is shunted to the
E of the region as broad SW flow aloft becomes established from the
south-central plains into the OH Vly. At the sfc, a weak front will
slowly pivot into the area through the near term period before
essentially stalling out squarely across the region for the next
36-48 hours. As this occurs, several weak impulses, including one or
more remnant/ill-defined sfc waves, will provide periods of showers
and storms locally through the remainder of the week.
This more active stretch will begin by daybreak as a weakening band
of SHRA/TSRA drifts to the E into the local area. Although moisture
advection will be underway from the SW/W through the morning, the
antecedent environment/profile locally is still quite dry, as
sampled by the 05.00Z KILN RAOB. So it is expected that the
initially-cohesive band of SHRA/TSRA around daybreak entering the
wrn parts of the ILN FA will continue to fall apart with eastward
extent. This should yield a decrease in coverage of activity this
morning as the activity withers, but it will provide a solid shield
of cloud cover, which may inhibit, or at the very least delay,
diurnally-driven destabilization efforts into early afternoon. There
are some uncertainties in just how /quickly/ we destabilize this
afternoon, with some signal for only a weakly-unstable environment
through much of the afternoon before better instby tries to
nudge/develop into wrn parts of the area by early evening. In this
scenario, it is plausible that coverage of TSRA may be rather limited
locally through most of the afternoon as the environment works to
destabilize sufficiently, with an increase in coverage focused more
toward early/mid evening, particularly near/W of I-75.
The setup for this afternoon, but particularly this evening, is one
characterized by very weak effective/LL/deep-layer flow, but modest
instby (ML/SBCAPE ~1000-1200 J/kg). With the very weak shear and only
meager forcing, but /somewhat/ favorable thermodynamic environment,
the storm development should be very disorganized/cellular, but
could pose a brief gusty/damaging wind (via downburst) or small hail
threat. The overall severe threat is very marginal, owing to the
weak shear and lack of organization, but suppose that it cannot be
ruled out altogether given a somewhat mixed BL and deep/modest
instby, particularly by early/mid evening. The PWats will be 150+%
of seasonal norms, so certainly very efficient rain rates (heavy
rain) will be possible with the strongest activity, too.
Highs today will be still quite seasonable, ranging from the upper
70s to mid 80s from WC OH to SC OH/NE KY, respectively. It will be
humid, however, with sfc dewpoints hovering in the upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
There are signals for a weak sfc wave/impulse to move into the Tri-
State area between about 02z-08z, which should provide /just/ enough
forcing to keep ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA activity going in this area well
past sunset. However, the overall coverage of activity should wane
toward daybreak Friday. But certainly at least some TSRA activity
should be maintained past midnight.
A mild and muggy night is on tap tonight as temps only dip into the
mid to upper 60s before rebounding into the upper 70s and lower 80s
on Friday afternoon.
More diurnally-driven ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA activity is expected on
Friday, although coverage during the afternoon may be a bit more
limited on Friday than will be the case today as the initial weak sfc
wave moves to the E through the morning hours. This being said,
another weak wave/impulse will approach from the SW toward sunset
and beyond, indicating that storminess on Friday may increase a bit
toward the evening and early nighttime before waning again toward
daybreak Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing across the area Friday
evening before weakening and becoming more scattered overnight into
Saturday morning. A lingering strong/severe storm is possible as the
remaining instability is used along and south of the Ohio River
area. Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes suggests lower
shower/thunderstorm chances throughout the first part of Saturday
before another shortwave moves in Saturday evening and into Sunday
morning. Current forecast rainfall chances may decrease for Saturday
in future forecasts as confidence increases in the lull in activity
behind the Friday night system.
After this potential lull, additional rounds of slow moving showers
and thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday night into early Sunday
before drier air works into the region. This system will drive out
some of the deeper moisture across the area. However, shower &
thunderstorm mentions do not entirely disappear from the forecast
because yet another trough enters the region into early next week.
This stronger trough provides an opportunity for better forcing and
wind-flow, but deeper moisture is lacking. Confidence is fairly high
that behind the larger trough Tuesday, a period of dry conditions
begins by Wednesday. This could likely last a couple of days,
depending on the return of moisture from the south.
Temperatures over the period are near to slightly below normal given
the lack of deep ridging and multiple rounds of rainfall. Despite
the multiple rounds, there isn't a clear period where excessive
rainfall or severe weather are concerning. A few strong/severe
storms remain possible Friday night before the eventual weakening.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail as cloud cover thickens and overspreads
from the W through the morning hours. The arrival of widespread
cloud cover will be accompanied by a weakening complex of SHRA/TSRA,
which will move from W to E through the local area through early
afternoon. There are uncertainties about how long the organized band
of SHRA/TSRA will persist with eastward extent, but do think that
wrn sites of KDAY/KCVG/KLUK will see at least some brief pcpn this
morning before the activity falls apart altogether into early
afternoon.
There may be a brief "lull" in the activity early afternoon before
some diurnally-driven SCT and disorganized SHRA/TSRA develop by mid
afternoon into this evening. Right now, there is not a clear signal
regarding a favored location or time period for any one site, so have
maintained the PROB30 for each site through the evening to convey
the expectation for at least some SHRA/TSRA potential at any/each
site. There may be a better organized band of SHRA/TSRA that develops
and moves near KCVG/KLUK/KILN after about 03z, so have added a TEMPO
for these sites to account for this potential.
CIGs should predominantly remain VFR through 00z, although suppose a
brief MVFR CIG cannot be completely ruled out in a heavier
SHRA/TSRA. CIGs will gradually go more MVFR toward/beyond 06z. Of
course, brief but abrupt changes in VSBYs will be possible with any
TSRA activity, but some BR may also develop toward daybreak Saturday
as the flow becomes increasingly weak amidst a sufficiently-saturated
LL profile. Light southerly flow will go more out of the WSW around
5-10kts past 15z before going light/VRB toward/beyond 00z once again.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Friday. MVFR/IFR
ceilings are possible early Friday morning and again Friday night
into Saturday. Some storms may again be possible early Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 5, 6:43 AM EDT---------------
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