CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 5, 3:57 AM EDT717
FXUS61 KCLE 050757
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
357 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front gradually moves southeast across the area today and
tonight before moves south away from the area on Saturday. A low
pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region on Monday,
bringing another cold front across the area Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A slow-moving cold front continues to approach from the
northwest, moving southeast across the region today and tonight.
An area of rain persists near this cold across Indiana, lower
Michigan, and into Northwest Ohio. This slowly moves eastward
through the morning hours, becoming more scattered as it does
so.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon
generally along and east of I-77. There should be enough cloud
breaks for daytime heating to warm temperatures to around 80 in
this area, contributing to SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear
of around 25-30 knots marginally supports an organized severe
thunderstorm threat for this area largely via strong winds and
hail. 00Z HREF also a few updraft helicity tracks this afternoon
(largely driven by the HRRR).
Additional convection may continue to develop, mainly along the
southern and eastern periphery of our forecast area tonight and
Friday. Slow storm motions and high PWATs will contribute to a
low flooding threat this afternoon through Friday afternoon,
mainly for east-central and central Ohio where 00Z HREF shows
low probabilities (10-20%) of >2".
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly zonal pattern is expected this weekend. A cold front will
be exiting to the southeast and settling into the Ohio Valley Friday
night into Saturday as troughing shifts from the northern Great
Lakes towards northern New England. Weak high pressure will wedge
out of the Great Lakes and into the local area Saturday before
exiting east Saturday night into Sunday as the next shortwave lifts
out of the Ohio Valley and into the southern Great Lakes. This next
shortwave will allow the front to start lifting out of the Ohio
Valley and towards northern Ohio/northwestern PA as a warm front
Sunday and Sunday night.
POPs linger into Friday night as the front gradually exits to the
southeast, with a drying trend expected from the northwest behind
the front. Lows Friday night are expected to range from the upper
50s to lower 60s for most. The forecast for Saturday has trended a
bit more optimistic as there's better agreement in high pressure
beginning to wedge in. Have some slight chance (20%) POP mentions
still for Saturday, though if current trends hold we'll end up
seeing a mix of sun/clouds with highs in the mid-upper 70s. Chance
POPs (30-50%) for showers/thunder gradually return from southwest to
northeast Saturday night into Sunday as the next shortwave and warm
front approach out of the Ohio Valley. Lows will generally be in the
mid 50s to near 60 Saturday night, with highs in the 70s to near 80
on Sunday. Lows will inch up a bit Sunday night, either side of 60.
The concern for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall from any
thunderstorms this weekends is minimal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A seasonally deep upper trough will dive into the upper Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night, before drifting into the Northeast while
gradually shearing out Tuesday and Wednesday. This will push a cold
front across the area Monday or Monday night, with perhaps a
trailing secondary trough crossing the area on Tuesday. There's good
agreement in high pressure building in towards midweek. Chances for
showers and storms are in the forecast along/ahead of the cold front
Monday into Monday night, with chances lingering into Tuesday with
the potential for a secondary trough to swing through. While flow
aloft may be strong enough for organized convection on Monday,
instability currently looks to be a limiting factor for a more
robust severe weather threat. The forecast trends drier for
Wednesday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for
the long term.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A slow-moving cold front continues to approach from the west,
with an area of rain and associated non-VFR near the front.
Within our forecast area, VFR is observed areawide, except in
Northwest Ohio where aforementioned rain and associated IFR
ceilings have moved in. Upstream, it seems like once IFR
ceilings build it, it remains that way, so have IFR ceilings at
KTOL through the rest of the overnight hours.
Otherwise, showers finally move in from the west across the area
later this morning and through the afternoon. It's uncertain how
much lightning will actually occur at or near TAF sites, so
greatly reduced amount of TS mention compared to the previous
forecast. Generally limit it to a 3-6 hour window for the next
few hours at KTOL, late morning for KMFD, and early-mid
afternoon for the farther east TAF sites. Otherwise, once rain
moves in from the west, it will remain, albeit somewhat
scattered.
For tonight, most model generally have ceilings deteriorating to
MVFR and IFR conditions, with some lower visibilities possible
with BR and RA.
Light winds out of the south tonight, gradually become north and
then northeast today and tonight as the front crosses the
region.
Outlook...Periods of non-VFR expected with scattered showers
and thunderstorms through Friday night. Non-VFR may return in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds are expected to remain under 15kt (outside of any
thunderstorms) over Lake Erie for the next several days. Generally
northeasterly winds are expected today and Friday. Winds are
expected to shift more northerly for Saturday, more northeasterly
for Sunday, and then more southerly on Monday behind a warm front.
Winds will shift more westerly for Tuesday and Wednesday behind a
cold front. Thunderstorms this afternoon through Friday will mainly
focus inland from Lake Erie, though may impact locations near the
southern shoreline at times, especially this afternoon. The next
potential for thunderstorms over the lake will be late Sunday as a
warm front lifts across the lake, lingering into early next week as
a cold front moves through the region.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 5, 3:57 AM EDT---------------
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