MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 12:40 PM CDT ...New Aviation...042
FXUS64 KMOB 311740
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1240 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025
An upper level shortwave over the Southeast moves off, with a weak
cold front south of the northern Gulf coast moving a bit further
south tonight through Saturday before stalling. This front will
provide the focus for convection developing over the Gulf through
Saturday over open Gulf waters before it washes out. A surface
ridge organizing over the northern Gulf coast late Sunday through
Sunday night will begin to bring moisture back to the Lower
Mississippi River and western portions of the Southeast, but not
enough for precipitation to return the forecast area.
The forecast area will see a cooling off today, with temperatures
topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures see a small
uptick for Sunday, topping out in the mid 80s to around 90. A mild
night is expected Saturday night, with good radiational cooling
from the dry airmass allowing temperatures to bottom out in the
low 60s north of I-10, mid 60s to near 70 south. The small
increase in moisture levels late Sunday through Sunday night will
bring a small uptick in low temperatures, with 60-65 expected
north of I-10, 65 to 72 south to the coast.
A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into Monday. /16
An upper trof over the East Coast states into the eastern Gulf on
Monday moves off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday, with
an upper ridge meanwhile building over the eastern states. Another
upper trof over the western CONUS expands to encompass the
western and central states, then spreads into the eastern states
through Friday, with the upper ridge meanwhile dissipating. Yet
another upper trof, this one in the easterlies, advances to mainly
over the Florida peninsula by Tuesday, then continues slowly into
the eastern Gulf through Friday. Dry conditions are expected over
the forecast area Monday into Tuesday with the upper ridge
building into the region, then slight chance to chance pops return
by Wednesday as the upper ridge weakens and a southeasterly
surface flow steadily brings improving deep layer moisture into
the area. A surface low passing well off to the north brings a
trailing cold front to near the forecast area by Friday, and will
have chance pops on Thursday trending to chance to likely pops by
Friday. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Tuesday,
then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
VFR conditions will prevail along with light and variable winds.
/22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025
Light to moderate offshore flow will become more variable through
the weekend. A surface ridge building west over the northern Gulf
Coast beginning early in the week will bring a return of onshore
flow to area waters by mid week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 87 67 88 68 89 71 89 / 0 0 10 10 0 10 10 30
Pensacola 69 86 71 87 72 87 75 87 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 10 20
Destin 71 87 73 88 74 89 76 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Evergreen 59 88 63 91 64 93 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 20
Waynesboro 60 86 63 88 64 91 67 91 / 0 10 10 10 0 10 0 30
Camden 59 84 63 87 64 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20
Crestview 60 89 64 91 65 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 12:40 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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