Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #355 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE087
AWUS01 KWNH 040104
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ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040703-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0355
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
904 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Areas affected...southern/central Missouri, far northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 040103Z - 040703Z
Summary...A couple of progressive linear convective complexes will
sweep through the region this evening, prompting occasional areas
of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates on an isolated basis. These rates
could result in a few areas of flash flooding - especially in
typical sensitive/low-lying areas of the Missouri Ozarks.
Discussion...Earlier convection across Kansas/northern Missouri
has evolved into a couple of extensive linear segments - one
extending from near Quincy, IL to near Sedalia, MO that intersects
with a separate linear MCS across west-central Missouri through
Joplin and Tulsa, OK. These linear complexes have become much
more progressive compared to their earlier evolution, with 25-35
kt storm motions generally limiting hourly rain rates to 1-1.5
inch/hr in spots. Despite the downward trend in rain rates, some
opportunity remains for training/repeating cells across central
Missouri (near the intersection of the two linear complexes
around/south of the Columbia area) and across far northeastern
Oklahoma (where 1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates are more prevalent east
of Bartlesville). The overall regime appears to be shifting
eastward toward the Missouri Ozarks and vicinity, with terrain
supporting occasional flash flood potential in low/sensitive
spots. The downstream environment contains 1.5-1.9 inch PW values
and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE - both supportive of efficient rain rates
(occasionally exceeding 1 inch/hr) as storms move east.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 39699213 39499106 39019056 38299066 37149094
36359235 35839359 35929478 36479513 37209457
38359388 39249298
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #355 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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