PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 3, 1:47 AM CDT021
FXUS63 KPAH 030647
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
147 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazy skies from the Canadian wildfire smoke will linger today,
and some smoke could reach near the surface this afternoon
when wind gusts between 20 to 25 mph will be possible.
- Unsettle weather returns on Wednesday and continues through
the weekend with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall and localized flooding remains the main concern
with total rainfall between 1.0 to 3.0 inches on average.
- The potential for severe weather remains low, but Friday
afternoon into Friday evening may pose the best marginal risk
for gusty winds versus Wednesday contingent on timing and
placement.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
Ample dry weather will persist through today as a 500 mb ridge and
sfc high pressure begins to build east of the FA. Despite southerly
flow in the column, residual wildfire smoke and haze from Canada
will linger through most of the day. In fact, the 0z HRRR has
near sfc smoke progged after 16z through this evening when
BUFKIT soundings indicate deep layer mixing above 850 mb. Any
smoke or haze near the sfc may also linger into tonight due to a
shallow inversion above the boundary layer. Have added mention
in the wxgrids for these reasons. Breezy conditions can also be
expected due to a tighter pressure gradient with wind gusts
between 20 to 25 mph possible out of the south. Have gone ahead
and issued a Lake Wind Advisory for today across the entire FA
as sustained winds above 15 mph for a 1 hour period will be
possible.
A prolong period of unsettled weather remains on track for Wednesday
as multiple 500 mb shortwaves begin to approach the FA from the
Plains causing height falls aloft. Daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms remain probable beginning late Wednesday.
Confidence in the severe weather potential remains fairly low.
SPC has a small marginal across the far NW in their D2 outlook,
but the shear and lapse rates are not great. However, Friday may
pose the best marginal risk if everything lines up. The 0z GFS
remains persistent in the timing of a slow moving frontal
boundary that approaches from central Missouri during the
latter half of the week. This would support a low end severe
risk Friday afternoon into Friday evening when an influx of 340K
0-3km theta-e occurs. 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE combined with
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and 800-1000 J/kg of DCAPE
would favor the risk for gusty winds if correct. Lapse rates
are modest between 6.5 to 7.0 C/km. Meanwhile, the ECMWF/CMC
still push the frontal boundary south quicker Friday morning
which would inhibit the severe potential with the better
instability and shear remaining to the south and west.
The potential for heavy rainfall and some localized flooding still
remains the main concern with PWATs rising to 1.75 to 2.00" across
the FA. While rain chances linger into the weekend, showers and
thunderstorms should turn more scattered by Saturday afternoon with
increasing dry intervals as the aformentioned boundary pushes south
as a cold front. Between Wednesday and Sunday, total rainfall
between 1.0 to 3.0" remains progged on average with locally higher
amounts possible with training convection parallel to the frontal
boundary. Rain chances may linger into early next week before
another ridge of high pressure builds over the FA allowing for a
return to drier conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
Light winds tonight shift to southerly, with winds becoming
breezy during the day, gusting to 20-25 kts. High elevation
smoke continues through the night, with models showing a south
to north drift of lower elevation haze/smoke during the
afternoon hours. Clouds this afternoon/evening should remain
VFR around 4000-6500 ft.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...ATL
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 3, 1:47 AM CDT---------------
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