IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 4:35 AM EDT902
FXUS63 KIWX 310835
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
435 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Partly to mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected
through Tuesday. Rain chances return Tuesday night, and
persist through the end of the work week. The best potential
is Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night (45 to 75
percent), when thunderstorms are also possible.
- Temperatures will warm from the 60s and 70s this weekend into
the 80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows this weekend will be in the
40s, then climb into the 50s and 60s for the start of the work
week.
- There is a moderate swim risk for Lake MI beaches along
Berrien and La Porte counties today. A moderate risk means
that breaking waves and currents are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025
Partly to mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through
the weekend as high pressure builds in behind the exiting cold
front/low pressure trough. It will be cool, with highs today in the
60s [upper 50s near Lake Michigan with onshore winds] and low 70s
[along/south of US 24]. Highs Sunday will be a little warmer-with
temperatures near Lake MI in the mid to upper 60s and inland temps
in the low 70s. Lows will be in the 40s.
Breezy N-NW winds gusting to around 15-20 mph today will bring wave
heights on Lake Michigan up to around 3 feet with 5 to 6 second
periods. The wave direction looks to be out of the North, which
ranges from around a 40 to 70 degree wave angle of approach relative
to shore. These conditions are conducive to dangerous current
development, especially near piers and breakwalls. Additionally,
gauges at calumet harbor suggest there were water level fluctuations
associated with the storms that moved over Lake Michigan last night,
which can increase the risk of currents being present. That being
said, the fluctuations appear to have significantly dampened and
will continue to dampen through the morning-so not sure this will
impact our swim risk by the late morning/early afternoon. For now,
opted to go with a moderate swim risk and no beach hazards
statement for both counties.
Monday into Tuesday the upper low responsible for this past weeks
cool and showery weather will drift eastward, with a broad ridge
building into the Great Lakes in it's wake. This will keep us dry
through Tuesday afternoon, with high temperatures climbing into the
80s [mid-upper 80s by Tuesday].
The next chances for rain arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday [some
begin as early as early Tue Eve west of US 31], then persist through
the end of the work week. The best potential is Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday night [45-75 percent], where thunderstorms are
also possible. The upper level ridge will slowly shift to the
eastern seaboard through the week-eventually stalling out. A
broad trough exists over the majority of the CONUS stemming from
an upper low over the Canadian Prairies, with our area on the
NW periphery of the exiting ridge/incoming trough by Tuesday
evening. This leaves us susceptible to any shortwaves rippling
through the flow-thus the persistent rain chances through the
week. A cold front trailing from low pressure centered near
James Bay will be our first chance at rain Tuesday evening-and
models bring this into our NW CWA by Thursday morning. Eastward
progression is uncertain thanks to the high pressure to the
east-so I suspect we'll have a stationary front draped from SW
to NE over our area by Thu afternoon, which lingers through at
least Friday morning. This will provide a focus for
precipitation, particularly if moisture transport from the gulf
is funneled into our area as the models suggest. WPC has our
area in an excessive rainfall outlook [marginal risk] for day 5
[Tue Night-Wed] and wouldn't be surprised to see this expanded
through Thu given the stalled boundary. A surface low moves
along this front and into our area Thursday evening, then
reaches the lower Great Lakes by Friday morning. Expect chances
for precipitation to taper off Friday into Saturday as high
pressure builds in behind the low [models disagree on how fast
this occurs].
Temperatures on Wednesday look to be in the 80s [mid-upper 80s
possible east of I 69 if ridge is slow to exit the forecast area],
then remain in the mid to upper 70s through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025
The trough axis with associated surface cool front has pushed
southward through most of the area as seen on latest radar
imagery. Will see cloud cover on the decrease over the next
several hours and by 13z Sat we will see clear to mostly clear
skies with northerly wind gusts post frontal picking up to
around 20 kts for both TAF sites. After 00z winds should
moderate. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 4:35 AM EDT---------------
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