BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 1:04 PM EDT248
FXUS61 KBOX 291704
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
104 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather tonight once the lingering light showers near
the south coast depart. Warmer temperatures return on Friday
with some partial sunshine too and just a few diurnally driven
afternoon and evening showers. A more significant round of
widespread showers, heavy at times possibly, are expected late
Friday night into Saturday morning, as another low tracks
through New England. A period of drier weather is possible
Saturday afternoon, before another round of showers arrives
later Saturday into Saturday night with a few embedded
thunderstorms possible too. Mainly dry weather returns Sunday
and Monday, but slightly cooler than normal, with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The forecast remains uncertain for next
week, pending the track of an offshore low. As of now, it looks
mainly dry and mild.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Considerable clouds but mainly dry weather tonight
* Low temps in the 50s
Details...
A weak wave of low pressure will pass southeast of the
Cape/Islands early this evening. This will take any remaining
light showers near the south coast with it. We also can not rule
out a diurnally driven spot shower or two into mid evening
towards the Berks. Otherwise...generally dry weather tonight but
with lingering low level moisture and the lack of a dry push of
air expect an abundance of clouds to linger. Low temps tonight
will be in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Partly sunny & pleasant Fri...Highs M-U 70s
* A few diurnally driven showers Fri afternoon/evening
Details...
Friday...
There is some brief mid level ridging that builds into the
region Fri. This should allow for partly sunny skies and warmer
temps than today. Highs should rebound into the middle to upper
70s and it is not out of the question a few places flirt with 80
degrees. Forcing/instability is limited...but a weak surface
trough coupled with a few hundred J/KG of Cape will result in a
few diurnally driven showers especially northwest of I-95 near
that boundary. We can not rule out the low risk for a rumble of
thunder...but based on the above did not include in the
forecast at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* A period of rain Friday night into Saturday morning, then possibly
drying out Saturday afternoon, before a second round of showers &
possible thunderstorms arrive Saturday evening/night
* Mainly dry Sunday and Monday, just a low probability of a
brief/spot shower each afternoon. Slightly cooler than normal
* Uncertainty in next weeks forecast, pending track/evolution of
offshore low. Monday and Tuesday appear mainly dry.
Impacts...
Friday night thru Monday...
Anomalous mid/upper trough amplification over PA/NY will yield a
period of wet weather here in SNE Friday night into Sat morning,
with a sub 990 mb low tracking across the area. Widespread rain
expected with embedded heavier rain a times Fri night into Sat AM,
given the anomalous synoptic scale lift. Dry slot overspreads the
region Saturday afternoon, likely yielding a period of drier
weather, before a secondary short wave bringing the risk for a
round of showers with possibly embedded thunderstorms Saturday
evening and night. Dry weather likely Sunday and Monday, despite
cyclonic flow aloft, but with trough deamplification/rising heights,
it's more of a brief/spot diurnal shower situation, with many more
hours of dry weather than wet. Temps averaging slightly cooler than
normal given the cold pool aloft combined with diurnal clouds.
Tue/Wed/Thu...
Uncertainty in next weeks forecast revolves around mid/upper low
south of New England and its eventual evolution. Initially good
model agreement for mainly dry weather early next week, along with
temps warming well into the 70s by Tue. However by Wed and Thu, a
lot of uncertainty regarding how close/far northward this system
drifts. Thus, could be a low risk of showers Wed and Thu if system
traverses far enough northward/close to the coast. However, if the
system remains far enough offshore with ridging from the west
building in, SNE could see low 80s mid to late next week!
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...Moderate Confidence.
We will continue see a scattered to overcast deck of mainly
lower end VFR-MVFR ceilings tonight and Friday...but some
localized IFR-LIFR condition possible at times too mainly near
the south coast. Dry weather dominates...but a few diurnally
driven showers expected Friday afternoon and evening. Light SW
winds tonight and between 7-15 knots on Friday.
BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA, slight chance
TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight and Friday...High Confidence.
Marginal 5 foot seas across the southern waters from left over
swell diminish later tonight...so will continue SCA for just those
areas into tonight. Otherwise...a weak pressure gradient will
keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds with the
main concern being fog patches over the southern waters.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 20 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Nocera
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera
MARINE...Frank/Nocera
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 1:04 PM EDT----------------
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