IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 1:44 AM EDT722
FXUS63 KIWX 310544
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
144 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance (30-50%) for scattered showers and isolated storms
this evening. Storms could produce wind gusts to 40 mph.
- Seasonably cool and dry this weekend before a notable warm-up
ensues early next week.
- The next opportunity for showers and storms arrive on
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025
A potent shortwave diving south through the western Great Lakes will
lend a shot of mid level dcva and ascent on the nose on a
cyclonically curved ~60kt 500 mb jet this evening. Moisture quality
is poor, but this forcing and weak instability (steep lapse rates)
in advance of an associated backdoor cold front should be enough to
generate scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two capable of
wind gusts to 40 mph. This system will also drive smoke (haze)
from ongoing canadian wildfires south into portions of the
forecast area late this afternoon into tonight. The bulk of the
smoke likely remains aloft per upstream obs and HRRR progs.
Dry, stable and seasonable cool air funnels in post-frontal late
tonight into Saturday within breezy northerly flow as shortwaves
merge into a large negative height anomaly over southeast Canada and
Northeast. Models suggests that the primary smoke plume out of
Canada will push west of the local area for the bulk of the weekend.
Warm-up associated with a transition to a progressive flow regime
remains on track into early next week as low level flow becomes
southwesterly under an upper ridge building overhead. A series of
pacific shortwaves then take aim on the region for the mid to late
week periods, flattening the upper ridge axis. This process likely
forces an oscillating frontal boundary into an increasingly moist
airmass for convective chances as earlier as Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025
The trough axis with associated surface cool front has pushed
southward through most of the area as seen on latest radar
imagery. Will see cloud cover on the decrease over the next
several hours and by 13z Sat we will see clear to mostly clear
skies with northerly wind gusts post frontal picking up to
around 20 kts for both TAF sites. After 00z winds should
moderate. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 1:44 AM EDT---------------
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