PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 2:31 PM CDT082
FXUS63 KPAH 301931
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
231 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Lake Wind Advisory continues through 6 PM CDT/7 PM EDT for
much of the area.
- Isolated thunderstorms across the Evansville Tri-State and
the Kentucky Pennyrile will gradually wind down this evening.
- Small thunderstorm chances, mainly during the daytime hours,
will continue this weekend, along with a warming trend in
temperatures.
- Seasonably warm and dry weather is forecast early next week,
but a turn to unsettled weather arrives for the latter half of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025
Northwest synoptic flow will continue through this weekend, with
embedded small H5 vorticity maxima kicking off isolated
thunderstorms across the EVV Tri-State into the KY Pennyrile
this afternoon and again over the EVV Tri-State on Saturday
afternoon. Coverage will be sparse enough to keep most locations
dry. On Sunday afternoon, another more organized disturbance
will move through the Central Plains, with renewed scattered
convection chances mainly over southeast MO into western KY.
Canadian wildfire smoke will also move into the region late
tonight through Saturday night. Model guidance keeps the smoke
elevated high in the troposphere, so the only noticeable impacts
will be faintly hazy skies and increased cloud cover.
Gradient today from the WSW have periodically reached Lake Wind
Advisory levels over much of area east of the Mississippi
River, so no changes are planned for existing Lake Wind
Advisory. Another Lake Wind Advisory will probably be needed for
some or all of the region on Saturday as well.
Early will seasonably warm and dry weather as H5 ridging
briefly builds over the region. However, a turn to an unsettled
pattern is looking increasingly lightly for the latter half of
next week. This will be driven by tropical moisture from the
remnant of Tropical Storm Alvin in the East Pacific being drawn
into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. The end
result will be daily thunderstorm chances beginning Wednesday
through the rest of the work week. While it is too early to say
of any of this convective activity could pose a severe risk, the
presence of anomalously moist PWAT values could lead to multiple
rounds of heavy rain and a flooding implications.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025
As a drier airmass continues to advance into the region from the
NW, isolated shower activity near EVV and OWB will diminish.
SCT-BKN CU decks with bases between 3500' and 7000' will wane in
coverage overnight. High cloud cover from Canadian wildfire
smoke will ramp up overnight through Saturday. WNW winds will be
breeze at times, sustained at 9-14 kts with gusts up to 22 kts
possible through the afternoon. After relaxing to around 5-8 kts
overnight, WNW winds will again increase to near this
afternoon's values after 15z Saturday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-
087-110>112-114.
IN...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT /7 PM EDT/ this evening for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 2:31 PM CDT---------------
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