IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 27, 9:38 PM EDT151
FXUS63 KIWX 280138
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
938 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There are chances (40-70%) for rain showers on Wednesday.
- Cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s
Wednesday and Thursday will give way to highs generally in
the mid 70s Friday through Sunday.
- Warmer next week with highs in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025
A strong mid level moisture gradient continues to slowly lift
northward across far northern Indiana this evening. The
strongest advective forcing with this elevated theta-e gradient
is across northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan where
mid level flow fields are slightly stronger. Precip amounts from
the light rain across the west will be very light (trace to few
hundredths of an inch) with sfc observations indicating bases
of clouds still around 10k feet for most locations. Should
gradually see this light rain taper temporarily over next
several hours as the moisture gradient lifts northward. Looking
ahead to later tonight/early Wednesday, a more organized area of
stronger low level moisture convergence will take shape across
west central IL and lift northeast to the western Great Lakes
with a better chance of light rain after 09Z, and especially
after daybreak through the morning hours Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025
Weak, elevated moist advection will persist this afternoon into
tonight well north of a sfc frontal boundary and southeast of
an Upper Midwest closed upper low. Mainly cloudy skies should
persist in this regime with dry low level easterly flow on the
southern side of canadian high pressure keeping most incoming
radar returns from reaching the ground (a few sprinkles possible
mainly southeast of US 24).
Decent chances (40-70%) for measurable showers do enter the forecast
tomorrow, especially during the late morning and afternoon. A
distinct upper level wave pinwheeling around the aforementioned
upper low into the Great Lakes will aid in lifting the frontal
boundary and potential weak sfc reflection northward into the area.
Some left exit upper jet dynamics also to work with, though local
rain amounts/coverage may end up somewhat limited for most given the
disjointed nature to the forcing and moisture return.
A leftover trough axis should edge slowly southeast through the
region Thursday into Friday with the bulk of available guidance
favoring a weakened and more disorganized embedded disturbance with
better rain prospects bypassing south.
A large negative height anomaly emerges over southeast Canada this
weekend with mainly dry and seasonable wx anticipated within
northwest flow on the backside. Excellent model agreement then on a
pattern change next week as upper level ridging builds in with
warmer summer-like temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 754 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025
A rather complicated synoptic setup remains in place this
evening. A few areas of light rain continue this evening, one
across northwest Ohio in left exit region of upper jet and
associated with a weak low level cyclonic synoptic circulation.
A second area of light rain has tried to push east with some
elevated advective forcing and elevated baroclinicity across
northeast IL/northwest Indiana. Cloud bases remain very high
around 10k feet, so expectation is that KSBN will have a
difficult time experiencing anything more than sprinkles this
evening. The primary upper level trough/upper vort max will
begin to lift northeast out of the Corn Belt late tonight into
Wednesday allowing inverted sfc trough feature to lift across
the area. This should help take the lower end MVFR cigs (or
possibly IFR cigs) across the Ohio Valley into northern Indiana
late tonight into Wednesday given increasing low level moisture
and poor mixing. Rain showers are also expected to overspread
terminals on Wednesday with a 3 to 6 hour period of a more
widespread light rainfall. Cigs should not improve much during
this forecast valid period once they deteriorate later
tonight/Wednesday morning. Winds will remain light through the
period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 27, 9:38 PM EDT---------------
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