PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 2:34 AM CDT665
FXUS63 KPAH 300734
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
234 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers and possibly a stray thunderstorms will linger
from the Pennyrile northward into southwest Indiana this
morning.
- A warming trend commences this weekend and continues through
next week with highs warming back into the 80s. Heat index
readings may rise above 90 by Tuesday or Wednesday. Mainly dry
conditions are forecast through Tuesday.
- A more unsettled pattern is forecast to return from the middle
to to the end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
A shortwave/trough axis passing through the area this morning
will continue to bring a few rain showers and maybe a stray
thunderstorm from around the Pennyrile north into southwest
Indiana this morning. As the trough shifts east of the area by
late morning, expect showers and storms to diminish across the
entire Quad State. Deeper mixing this afternoon may also lead to
gusty northwest winds to around 20 to 25 mph. Sustained winds
will be approaching Lake Wind Advisory criteria.
The trough will gradually shifts off to the east of the area through
the weekend, keeping conditions mainly dry; however, it may still be
close enough to touch off a few showers and storms Saturday
afternoon, mainly over the Pennyrile into southwest IN. That
precipitation will also be more focused along a backdoor cold front
and largely limited to the daytime hours with increased instability.
The overall chance still looks to be fairly low around 20% right
now. Yet another small chance may also briefly brush through the
area Sunday afternoon as another shortwave passes nearby; however,
it still looks like the main energy with that system will pass to the
southwest of the Quad State.
After the trough shifts east, another trough is expected to dig in
across the western CONUS as upper-level ridging builds across the
central and eastern CONUS Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to
temperatures warming well into the 80s from Sunday through the
middle of next week while keeping conditions mainly dry. The added
moisture in place will allow heat indices to reach close to 90
degrees! The next low pressure system and associated cold front is
progged to pass through the area toward Wednesday into Thursday of
next week as flow becomes a bit flatter across the area. This will
bring several rounds of showers and storms for the last half of the
week. Severe weather does look like a possibility for Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening (depending on frontal boundary
timing) as instability values increase and deep layer shear is
marginal around 20 to 25 kts. Worth keeping an eye on over the next
few days!
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025
An upper level system is bringing light to moderate rain across
the region. MVFR cigs and MVFR/IFR visby is possible with any
heavier rain that move across the terminals. Rain will come to
an end from west to east by sunrise Friday morning. MVFR cigs
will continue to early to mid morning with cigs scattering out
by late morning to early afternoon. Winds become northwesterly
on Friday with gusty winds of 15-18 knots by the afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 2:34 AM CDT---------------
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