The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 24, 20:07z for portions of PAH802
WUUS01 KWNS 242009
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VALID TIME 242000Z - 251200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 41000427 39900371 39500332 38790329 38330382 38130509
38530539 39170544 40110564 40730576 41320611 41810641
42570659 42950634 42960550 42750489 41000427
0.02 33569393 33929566 34029747 32540052 32860213 33570214
35270036 36030004 36449991 37059916 37509846 37529695
37159562 36509451 35559338 35369310 34769297 33929359
33669381 33569393 99999999 32959200 33799100 34618980
34958915 34818723 34608613 34048550 33448552 33088562
32788557 32268571 32058606 32038670 32128706 32188761
32038864 32159043 32959200
0.05 34889583 34209815 33330061 34600064 35499987 36139933
36489892 36829844 36959782 36939701 36619627 35709558
35139544 34889583
0.10 35259921 35459948 35679953 35969923 36039895 36249819
36269770 36149720 35789715 35449743 35169820 35169875
35259921
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 25958174 27368229 28458242 29138219 29458169 29278112
27798039 26808000 25908009 25388029 25208072 25348114
25958174
0.05 29490473 29870468 30930424 33220322 35340066 36549986
37220075 37280399 37830491 38880568 39980579 41450726
41970800 42300839 43060882 43430902 43740850 43820724
43830627 42820396 41540285 40240186 39250007 38739814
38639592 38189392 37099158 35868914 34938563 34698385
34048218 33468171 32048299 30958661 30728869 30629046
30989211 31429318 32209441 32879485 33469569 33839655
33839742 33039822 32809885 31590063 30470159 29050213
0.15 33639122 34119059 34658968 34758857 34658670 34348600
34078575 33268570 32848557 32288570 32048606 32038669
31878849 31919056 32669176 33639122 99999999 36049330
34789298 33819364 33349422 33819557 34019743 33149905
31960104 32300259 33260248 34960057 36949873 37309782
37349728 37069568 36539461 36309343 36049330
0.15 39070546 39750538 39810447 39200409 38640407 38470451
38590496 39070546
0.30 35189897 35239920 35519949 35689951 35809942 36009920
36699766 36749637 36359568 35989556 35249555 34989611
35289742 35089869 35189897
SIGN 39170517 39710514 39830449 39140405 38640412 38460454
38590491 39170517
SIGN 31970105 32290251 33140227 34820026 36849855 37239787
37269727 37119664 36579544 35959518 35229558 34879636
33949768 33159906 31970105
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 25968175 27358229 28448242 29148219 29458169 29278112
27808039 26798000 25928009 25388029 25208072 25348114
25968175
0.05 29490473 29870468 33230322 35340067 36549987 37220075
37360390 37840491 38890569 39980580 41450728 41760817
42650854 43350845 43800745 43840627 42980470 41570326
40240187 39250007 38729814 38129589 37289331 36629139
35858913 34928563 34698385 34048218 33468171 32048299
30948661 30638901 30549041 30829250 31119342 31869415
32919490 33729625 33859649 33869741 33189801 32789852
31480010 30460160 29050212
0.15 32969198 34089063 34658968 34618848 34538672 34348599
34088575 33358570 32838557 32308569 32078604 31958664
31498845 31478949 31659123 32189269 32969198 99999999
36599482 36149330 34779297 33779368 33349422 33319528
33889618 34039745 33179904 32220002 31810086 32300263
33240248 34960059 36919874 37039756 36599482
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
ENH 36009920 36699766 36749637 36359568 35989556 35249555
34989611 35289742 35089869 35239920 35459948 35679953
36009920
SLGT 32969198 33639122 34119059 34658968 34758857 34658670
34348599 34088575 33358570 32838557 32288570 32048606
31498845 31478949 31659123 32189269 32969198
SLGT 39750538 39810447 39200409 38640407 38470451 38590496
39070546 39750538
SLGT 33260248 34960059 36949873 37309782 37349728 37069568
36539461 36309343 36149330 34779297 33819364 33349422
33319528 33879617 34019743 33119910 32220002 31810086
32300263 33260248
MRGL 29148219 29458169 29278112 27808039 26808000 25908009
25388029 25208072 25348114 25968175 27358229 28448242
29148219
MRGL 29490473 29870468 33230322 35340067 36549987 37220075
37280399 37830491 38890569 39980580 41450728 41760817
43430902 43740850 43840627 42820396 41540285 40240186
39250007 38739814 38639592 38189392 35868914 34938563
34698385 34048218 33468171 32048299 30948661 30638901
30549041 30829250 31119342 32139434 32919488 33329561
33839655 33839742 33189801 31480010 30470159 29330202
TSTM 48518951 46549213 46679348 47009438 47949432 49249314
99999999 28519472 29259543 29999564 30859538 31559509
32769514 33399583 33739661 33709723 33189771 32459830
32329860 31899938 31200037 30300104 28720080 99999999
29600491 32810410 34750277 35780232 36110360 36640448
37600525 39230678 40190750 39901006 39181094 38481180
38111245 37981379 37521573 36261813 36281873 36691927
37381972 38402041 39632124 40402107 40432053 39831955
39361906 39781802 41371637 41821380 41721264 43091121
44491124 45511104 45891131 46951052 47260848 47280686
46940494 44980273 44310205 42299629 39659269 37659002
36218694 36088662 34998242 34417885 33687681
&&
THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
CSM 30 NNE END 20 W BVO 15 NE TUL 25 SE TUL 30 NNE MLC 20 WNW MLC 15
SE OKC 35 ESE CSM CSM 20 WNW CSM 30 NW CSM 45 N CSM.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
MLU 20 NW GLH 50 NNE GLH 20 NNW UOX 35 NNE TUP HSV 25 NNE GAD 20 ENE
GAD 20 SSE ANB 15 NNW AUO 30 SW AUO 10 NNW TOI 50 E PIB 10 W PIB HEZ
40 NE IER 30 N MLU.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
DEN 20 E DEN 25 WSW LIC 35 NE PUB 15 N PUB 20 SW COS 45 WNW COS 25 W
DEN.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW
LBB 40 NNW CDS 10 NNW AVK 30 SW ICT 25 SSE ICT 25 NE BVO 10 SE GMJ
15 W HRO 10 SW HRO 20 NNE HOT 30 NE TXK 15 WSW TXK 25 SSE PRX 15 ESE
DUA 30 SW ADM 60 NE ABI 25 SW ABI 35 NW SJT 35 NW MAF 45 SW LBB.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OCF 35
ENE OCF 10 NW DAB 10 N VRB 10 NE PBI 15 ENE MIA 30 S MIA 40 NNE MTH
40 N MTH 15 S APF 15 ESE SRQ 40 NNE PIE OCF.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW
MRF 50 SW MRF 40 N HOB 50 ESE BGD 70 WSW AVK 15 NE LBL 20 E TAD 40
SW PUB 50 W COS 50 WNW DEN 25 S RWL 50 ENE RKS 40 NW RIW 30 WSW WRL
50 SW GCC 45 W CDR 30 NNE SNY 25 SSW IML 15 SW HLC 25 W SLN 25 NE
EMP 40 SSW SZL 15 ESE DYR 25 WSW CHA 60 NNW AHN 45 SE AND 15 ENE AGS
40 WSW VDI 10 NNW CEW 15 NNE GPT 35 WNW ASD 40 SSW ESF 15 WNW POE 30
SE GGG 40 NNW GGG 25 SSW PRX 10 NE GYI 40 SW ADM 30 N MWL 25 ENE SJT
45 NE 6R6 50 SSE 6R6.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE GNA 20 S DLH 35
ENE BRD 45 NNW BRD 40 NE BJI 50 NNE INL ...CONT... 55 S GLS 10 NNE
LBX 30 NW HOU 10 NE UTS 30 NW LFK 30 NNE TYR 25 SW PRX GYI 30 W GYI
30 NW FTW 15 NNW SEP 25 WNW SEP 25 WNW BWD 15 SSE SJT 65 N DRT 45 S
DRT ...CONT... 75 SW MRF 35 NNE CNM 40 NE CVS 20 SE DHT 35 SW CAO
RTN 35 ENE ALS ASE 20 S CAG 40 ENE PUC 30 SSW PUC 55 NNE BCE 30 NNW
BCE 40 WNW CDC 60 NNE DRA 45 NNW NID 60 NNE BFL 25 ESE FAT 40 N FAT
40 SSW TVL 65 ESE RBL 65 ENE RBL 75 S AAT 25 NNE RNO 20 WSW NFL 35
SE LOL 40 SSW OWY 50 S BYI 35 SSW MLD 45 SW JAC 15 SSW WEY 20 SSE
BZN 10 NW BZN 50 NW 3HT 50 ENE LWT 65 S GGW 15 SSW GDV 55 SE 2WX 30
NW PHP 10 SSE SUX 30 SSW IRK 25 ESE FAM 15 WNW BNA BNA 15 WNW GSP 40
S FAY 75 ESE ILM.
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 24, 20:07z for portions of PAH---------------
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