LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 25, 6:29 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...585
FXUS63 KLMK 251029
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
629 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Below normal temperatures continue through the long holiday
weekend.
* A messy pattern will set up this week, bringing occasional rounds
of showers and some storms.
* 1 - 2.50 inches of rain will be possible through Wednesday, with
locally higher amounts possible in central and southern Kentucky.
The heaviest rain is expected late Monday night through Tuesday
night. The risk for severe weather is low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025
Although the region is currently under clear skies tonight, steady
winds are preventing temperatures from cooling efficiently.
Temperatures will cool by about 3-4 degrees before reaching lows in
the mid to upper 50s.
Troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging over the High Plains has
allowed flow over the lower Ohio Valley to become more zonal.
Multiple weak waves and a constant flow of vorticity will move over
the region beginning this afternoon. At the same time, surface high
pressure will steadily strengthen north of the region. Mid-level
clouds will fill in from west to east and some isolated showers will
be possible in the late afternoon, especially over southern
Kentucky. Any showers over northern Kentucky and southern Indiana
will have a lot of dry air near the surface to overcome, plus the
building high pressure will also help to push showers south. High
temperatures today will be similar to Saturday in the upper 60s and
low 70s.
In the overnight, high pressure to the north of the region will
continue to steadily strengthen and upper ridging previously over
the High Plains will begin to drift into the lower Ohio Valley by
Monday morning. This will help to keep conditions dry overnight.
Lows will remain in the mid to upper 50s given steady easterly winds
and broken skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025
Monday...
The aforementioned ridging will continue to move over the region and
amplify on Monday. At the same time, troughing out of the central
Plains will move northeast into the Ohio Valley and run into the
ridging. This weakening wave and associated vorticity will bring
showers to the region from the southwest late Monday afternoon. A
similar setup to Sunday, where there is a fair amount of dry and and
the competing ridging that will try to diminish the showers as they
continue northeast over the region. For this reason PoPs will remain
over the southern half of the region and not mentioned in the
northern half. High temperatures will be pleasant in the low 70s.
Monday Night - Late Next Week...
An upper level low will develop over the northern Plains/Midwest
Monday night, which will push ridging and high pressure east of the
region. A stationary front that has been lingering over the
southeast CONUS will begin to lift north over the lower Ohio Valley
as a warm front. This will bring southwesterly flow and deep-layer
moisture into the region along a 35-45kt LLJ. A surface low pressure
will likely develop over the central Plains and push northeast
through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Beginning Monday night through
Tuesday, nearly widespread showers will move through the region.
Isolated to scattered storms will be possible in the warm sector of
the system on Tuesday afternoon and evening. The cold front will
push west to east Wednesday morning.
Expecting to see 1-2.5 inches of rain over the region through
Wednesday morning. EFI continues to show a shift of tails of 1 over
southern Kentucky. Ensembles show only a 30% chance of exceeding 3
inches of rain. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times and
may produce localized flooding.
Upper pattern remains messy beyond Wednesday as the closed upper low
continues to spin over the Midwest. Thursday looks to be mostly dry
as the lower Ohio Valley is located between the upper low to the
north, troughing moving over the southeast CONUS, and the surface
low pressure to the northeast.
Some long range guidance is suggesting that the upper low gets
picked up by deep troughing that descends from northeastern Canada.
This would bring deep troughing over the eastern CONUS by late next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle. Winds will
steadily increase through the evening hours today reaching about 9-
11kts. Mostly clear skies currently, ahead of mid-level ceilings
that will move in by mid-morning. Ceilings could lower over as
shower chances increase in the afternoon. Continuing with PROB30s
since there is a good bit of dry air near the surface that these
showers will have to overcome.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 25, 6:29 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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