CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 23, 9:38 AM EDT689
FXUS61 KCLE 231338
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
938 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will get absorbed by a
stronger low over New England today. A residual trough will stay
over the area through Saturday before high pressure attempts to
nudge in from the northwest for Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:35 AM Update:
A small vort max is pushing off of Lake Erie and into far
Northeast OH/Northwest PA, with an increase in clouds and a few
showers. Sky cover is expected to increase elsewhere as a spoke
of low-level moisture and some daytime heating lead to cumulus
development. Likely will be a relative lull in lake effect
clouds/showers behind this vort max, with some increase in lake
effect activity through this afternoon.
Previous Discussion...
A pair of cool late May days are expected across the area, as a
pesky low pressure system starts to depart the region and the
rain will begin to exit today. This morning, the bulk of the
rain was limited to a lake enhanced band that was passing from
Huron to Canton with some showers getting into the Cleveland and
Akron metros. Drier air has eroded the cloud deck in Northwest
Ohio where the I-75 starts cool and clear. Winds will back a
touch today as the main low pressure system over the eastern
Great Lakes starts to get absorbed by a larger low over New
England. This will allow for the lake enhanced rain showers to
pivot east through NE OH and NW PA today and become more
scattered in nature. Wind will veer tonight and some cooler air
will settle into the region with 0 to -2C at 850 mb and some
more lake enhanced rain showers could redevelop into far NE OH
and NW PA and have a brief surge up to likely PoPs in this
area. A trough will remain across the area on Saturday and could
allow for some rain to continue in the snowbelt region, but the
forcing to support rain will start falling apart as high
pressure enters from the northwest and the main upper low that
has plagued the region will depart to the east. Temperatures
will be below normal for the period with highs likely not
escaping the 50s for most today and a range of lower 50s to
lower 60s for Saturday. Lows tonight will remain cool in the
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The stubborn mid/upper trough and associated closed low will
continue to gradually shift east of the region Saturday night and
Sunday, but one more mid-level shortwave and associated vort max
will drop through the trough Sunday. An unseasonably strong 120-125
knot H3 jet streak rotating around the base of the shortwave trough
and favorable positioning beneath the right entrance region will
lead to scattered showers in NW PA Sunday, with peak coverage during
daytime heating. With this in mind, NBM slight chance to chance PoPs
in NW PA Sunday afternoon look reasonable. Surface high pressure
from the Upper Midwest will finally slide into the central Great
Lakes region Sunday night and Monday to allow for dry conditions
areawide. This combined with rising heights aloft as mid/upper
shortwave ridging builds ahead of another mid-level closed low
rotating into the Northern Plains will lead to moderating
temperatures in addition to the dry weather for the start of the
work week. Warm air advection and isentropic ascent tries to bring
showers into the region from south to north as early as Monday
night, but deterministic and ensemble guidance are trending toward
the surface high over the northern Great Lakes remaining in place
longer. This will likely hold the warm frontal boundary toward the
Ohio River Valley and keep us drier. All of this being said, cut
back NBM PoPs Monday night.
Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday (coolest in NW PA) will
warm into the mid to upper 60s Monday. Lows will fall into the low
to mid 40s Saturday night and Sunday night, with a few upper 30s
possible in NW PA. Milder lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s are
expected Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The aforementioned mid-level closed low over the Northern Plains
will drift around that general area through mid and late week, with
confidence very low on when and how it may eject toward our region.
All of the deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian have
been handling it differently with little in the way of continuity
since it becomes displaced between persistent west coast mid/upper
ridging and a series of mid/upper troughs dropping through Quebec
late in the week. Stayed with NBM PoPs Tuesday through Thursday,
although slowed down the onset of highest PoPs given the slower exit
of the surface high over the Great Lakes and uncertainty with where
and when the closed low will move. Temperatures will be more
seasonable, but still several degrees below normal. Expect highs in
the mid/upper 60s Tuesday and Wednesday to moderate into the upper
60s/low 70s Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Conditions are improving across the airspace this morning as
clearing surges across northern Ohio. Believe that there will be
a limit to the clearing somewhere in NE OH, as there remains
some lake influence. However, clear conditions should exist for
a period during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Clouds will return this afternoon but should stay VFR for those
that lose their clouds this morning. For those sites that remain
socked in, including KERI and KYNG, believe that MVFR will be
favored for most of the TAF period. Another round of lake
enhanced rain showers will try to get into KERI this evening and
have those mentioned in the TAF. More dry air ahead of high
pressure will enter this evening and allow for the area to clear
toward the end of the TAF period with the eastern sites
remaining with cloud cover, like MVFR at KERI. Westerly winds
will pick up again during the peak heating hours with gusts of
20 to 25 kt possible, highest near Lake Erie.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with low ceilings remaining in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Breezy and choppy conditions will continue on Lake Erie today as NW
winds of 15-25 knots build 3 to 6 foot waves. The largest waves will
be in the central and eastern basins, so Small Craft Advisories and
Beach Hazard Statements for a high risk of rip currents will
continue. Winds and waves will gradually subside tonight, with W
winds of 10-15 knots expected Saturday then NW winds of 5-10 knots
Saturday night and Sunday. Winds will turn NE at 5-10 knots Sunday
night and Monday, increasing to 10-20 knots Monday night and
Tuesday. Winds and waves will be near Small Craft headline criteria
by Tuesday in the western and central basins given the long NE fetch
down the lake.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ009>012-
089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Garuckas
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 23, 9:38 AM EDT---------------
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