Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #919 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch prob: 40%] [Most Prob: Tornado: 85-115 MPH, Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: 55-70 MPH]588
ACUS11 KWNS 210917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210917
GAZ000-ALZ000-211015-
Mesoscale Discussion 0919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025
Areas affected...southern Alabama into west-central/south-west
Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 210917Z - 211015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in southern Alabama this
morning. These storms are more isolated/cellular than those farther
northeast in Georgia. The environment ahead these storms will remain
sufficient for transient supercell-like structures.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this morning to the south
and west of an existing, long-lived line of thunderstorms. These
developing thunderstorms exist in a slightly better thermodynamic
environment than those storms farther northwest. Here, most-unstable
CAPE of nearly 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 30-35 knots will
support at least transient supercell-like structures this morning
capable of strong, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
..Marsh/Smith.. 05/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31848815 32108785 32278740 32468588 32688415 32588359
32098374 31678529 31658629 31568695 31468772 31578805
31848815
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #919 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch prob: 40%] [Most Prob: Tornado: 85-115 MPH, Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: 55-70 MPH]---------------
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