ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 11:07 AM EDT521
FXUS61 KILN 211507
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1107 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking across the area today will bring scattered
showers and a chance of thunderstorms. A large upper level low over
the Great Lakes will keep cool and unsettled conditions in the
forecast for Thursday. High pressure will offer drier conditions for
Friday into Saturday with rain chances increasing Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure tracks south of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad upper low will continue to reside across the Great Lakes
region today. A surface low was located over northern Indiana at
12Z, and will move east across northern Ohio during the daytime
hours.
A band of showers has been on the increase the past couple of hours.
This is associated with a mid level shortwave and is also located
ahead of a front. Expect this band of showers to increase in
coverage as it moves northeast through the late morning and early
afternoon. Would not be surprised if eventually a few lightning
strikes occur especially over central Ohio with weak instability.
It's possible that any stronger convection could transport locally
strong wind gusts to the surface, and could even produce small hail.
While confidence in this occurring is low, the main risk area looks
to be over central/east-central Ohio.
Behind this initial band, additional showers are expected later
this afternoon into the evening. The highest coverage is expected
across the northern portion of the CWA. Enough instability may
support isolated thunderstorms as well. Even outside of any
convection, as a cold front moves through, and due to influence from
a tightening pressure gradient and mid-level jet, wind gusts of 25 to
35 mph will be possible through the afternoon and early evening
hours.
Cool conditions will persist with highs ranging from the lower 60s
northwest to near 70 southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Initial mid level shortwave to pivot east overnight as additional
energy drops southeast into the Ohio Valley Thursday. Surface low
tracks slowly northeast of the area overnight with showers decreasing
during the evening hours. Expect plenty of clouds overnight and
lingering chance of showers across the north. Lows tonight range
from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The threat for showers increases on Thursday as additional mid level
energy drops into the Ohio Valley. Clouds and rain will keep cool
temperatures over the area with highs from the mid 50s to the lower
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Slow-moving low pressure will slowly wobble to our east Thursday
night into Friday. While we could see an isolated shower over
central Ohio Friday afternoon, it appears most of the precipitation
will be to our north and east. By late on Saturday, a shortwave will
be digging southeast into the central plains, with an associated
surface low to the southeast of the wave. In response, isentropic
lift will develop across the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Guidance has trended earlier with rain for our area, with it now
beginning late Saturday night into Sunday morning and continuing
through the day.
The next couple of days are more uncertain. Main story appears to be
additional waves bringing showers to our southern counties with a
frontal boundary remaining well to the south of our CWA. With below
normal heights across the Great Lakes and northeast U.S.,
temperatures will trend below normal during the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level low to pivot east through the southern Great Lakes
today/tonight. Shower chances have decreased early this morning
leaving low level moisture. This has led to low ceilings and some
fog with conditions ranging from MVFR to IFR.
Shower chances increase this afternoon as the 5H low approaches the
area. Some marginal instability develops across the east and
therefore a brief window exists for a thunderstorm over KCMH and
KLCK. Ceilings lift thru MVFR with VFR conditions returning during
the afternoon. The VFR conditions will be replaced by a return to
MVFR this evening as clouds lower.
Southwest winds at 5 to 10 kts this morning become westerly by
afternoon. As the gradient tightens this afternoon expect winds to
increase with sustained winds around 15 kts with gusts up to 28 kts
at times into early evening.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 11:07 AM EDT---------------
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