JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 11:55 PM EDT937
FXUS63 KJKL 220355 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1155 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cooler air mass will arrive on Thursday, with below normal
temperatures then lasting until early next week.
- There will be possibilities for showers or a few thunderstorms
at times from Thursday on, but no heavy rainfall is foreseen
through at least Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure off to the northeast and this
is still keeping CAA going over the area on west to northwest of 5
to 10 mph with occasional higher gusts. It is also keeping a cu
field around at about 5k feet agl along with a couple of radar
returns in the form of sprinkles. Currently temperatures are
running in the mid 60s north to the lower 70s in the south.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and
trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and touch up the potential for
valley fog through the night. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025
The latest surface analysis from across the eastern CONUS has a
surface low working across the Ohio Valley. Extending from this
occluding surface low is a warm front that's oriented along the
eastern seaboard. The trailing cold front is slowly moving through
eastern Kentucky. To the west, surface high pressure is building
into the region but our next weather maker is slowly moving off the
southern High Plains into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Locally, lingering
showers, in association with the cold front, are slowly moving
across the eastern portions of the CWA into West Virginia. Behind
the front, widespread low-level clouds are limiting heating and CAA
behind the front are keeping temperatures in the mid to upper-60s.
Through the remainder of the day, the cold front will exit the CWA
but with the parent surface low moving through Ohio and surface high
pressure building in from the west, increased PGF surface winds are
expected throughout the day. Those winds will slacken off toward the
overnight but lingering cloud-cover, from the slow moving surface
low, will remain overhead and will keep the area relatively warmer
with lows falling into the upper-40s to low-50s.
Surface high pressure will continue to build into the area for
Thursday leading to a dry and quiet day but windy conditions will
continue throughout the day as the upper-level trough pivots through
the Commonwealth. At the surface, two surface lows are forecast to
Fujiwhara Effect over New England and when the westernmost surface
low moves southeast toward the CWA, increasing showers and
thunderstorms chances will exist overnight Thursday through the end
of the period. Since there's limited instability, severe
thunderstorms are not expected with the next round of thunderstorms.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025
The forecast period will start with the forecast area on the
backside of a departing cold front that's associated with a surface
low that Fujiwhara-ing over New England. Lingering showers will
taper off from northwest to southeast throughout the day. Surface
high pressure will build behind the departing front but
northwesterly flow behind the front will advect cooler temperatures
into the region leading to slightly below average temperatures
through the weekend.
A surface low that's been slowly meandering northeast out of the
southern High Plains will finally arrive to the area late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. The warm front will lift through
the area bringing increased shower and thunderstorm chances for late
Saturday into Sunday. Zonal flow is forecast to develop early Sunday
and linger into Monday which will provide very little movement in
the upper-level pattern until a trough pulls the surface low out of
the area for Monday afternoon. A second trough is progged to dive
into the area late Monday night into Tuesday which will bring
continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
forecast period.
Overall the period will be highlight by several passing waves
that'll bring increased chances of showers and storms. Temperatures
are forecast to be slightly below normal for this of year but
pleasant in the low to mid-70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites at issuance
beneath a scattered to broken deck of cu at around 5k feet agl.
West to northwesterly sustained winds of 5 to 10 knots and gusts
to around 15 knots will slacken off later this evening to light
and variable for the overnight hours. Terminal KSYM will likely
remain breezy overnight. Elsewhere, some patchy fog in the
valleys may seep up and affect the terminals with MVFR level
visibility for a time between 08 and 12Z. Winds then increase
again out of the west- southwest after 14Z/Thursday as CIGs remain
VFR for most, but some MVFR will be possible at KSYM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 11:55 PM EDT---------------
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