[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 21, 12:18z for portions of ILN

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 21, 12:18z for portions of ILN

036 
WUUS01 KWNS 211220
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025

VALID TIME 211300Z - 221200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   40748069 39938002 39677980 39268000 39328056 39508105
       40118143 40608130 40748069
0.02   33447798 34627769 36087884 36517905 36757885 36757787
       35697376
0.05   34497565 34797645 35157724 35687733 35987687 35937604
       35577473
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   38617956 38107986 38008016 38088071 38378096 38878145
       39938208 40588296 40978314 41348276 41498193 41498113
       41108027 39997946 39467913 38617956
0.05   36439595 37079701 38049719 38349574 38109418 37219141
       36008798 35568801 35238827 34978966 34999184 35359352
       35849469 36439595
0.05   30868594 31338414 31358261 31168142 30138128 29798164
       29708321 29918484 30138567 30438614 30868594
0.05   27670010 27519883 27089794 25649775
0.05   32857831 34927844 35937894 36727945 36997923 37237877
       37317797 36997625 36357406
0.15   36429481 36799542 37409521 37369403 36299093 35939009
       35329052 35399173 35889317 36429481
0.15   36017554 35667533 35377546 34547658 34817734 35587745
       36177699 36207662 36017554
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   29468761 30018750 30828680 31458489 31668223 31558076
       99999999 29568054 28828337
0.05   33037839 34157839 34897845 36117906 36797944 37037922
       37317843 37177705 36277385
0.05   41398268 41428116 41108024 39577912 38197974 38008012
       38078073 38848140 39858201 40578298 40918313 41398268
0.05   27649993 27499879 26799738 25499681
0.05   35359356 36049511 36459599 37039696 40010026 41850380
       42500385 42680248 41199856 39419613 38089409 37139113
       35838978 34968983 35009183 35359356
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   37409521 37369403 36299093 35939009 35329052 35399173
       36429481 36799542 37409521
SLGT   34507568 34747631 34547658 34817734 35587745 36177699
       36207662 36017554 35757538 35607482
MRGL   27670010 27519883 26799738 25579685
MRGL   29568054 28828337 99999999 29608758 30018750 30828680
       31458489 31668223 31558076
MRGL   41398268 41498193 41498113 41108024 39577912 38197974
       38008012 38078073 38878145 39888205 40578298 40978314
       41398268
MRGL   33227839 34897845 36797944 37037922 37237877 37317797
       36997625 36707524
MRGL   36449596 37109705 40010026 41850380 42510385 42680249
       41209857 39449615 38109411 35998797 35568801 35238827
       34968983 35009183 35359356 36449596
TSTM   49470574 47840473 45080167 42639910 41099662 39979473
       38729279 37568992 36468706 35908579 35168553 34588628
       34248792 34499098 35299481 37779984 41650590 42980773
       44090790 44880612 45420560 46220627 47760910 48461136
       48411290 48231382 48281649 48471707 49441828 99999999
       28920403 29980279 30230075 29649948 28649849 28579758
       29479610 29879517 30369317 31349043 32168589 32688112
       33797985 35027942 37778300 40548556 41638554 42638417
       43458158 99999999 43068006 42517862 41797784 39877673
       39537595 39677512 40517394 40907297 40997212 40707096

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
CNU 30 ENE JLN 10 N ARG 30 ENE JBR 35 SSE JBR 25 S BVX 15 SSW GMJ 35
E BVO 25 SE CNU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
HSE 50 ESE EWN 45 SE EWN 15 E OAJ 30 ENE GSB 45 ESE RZZ 25 W ECG 40
ESE ECG 40 NNE HSE 50 ENE HSE.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
LRD 40 E LRD 60 N BRO 45 SE BRO.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
DAB 60 SSW CTY ...CONT... 65 SSW PNS 35 SSW PNS 15 W CEW 35 ENE DHN
30 NNE AYS 50 SSE SAV.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
MFD CLE 30 NW YNG 25 ESE YNG 45 E MGW 45 NE SSU 20 NE SSU 30 NE BKW
35 S PKB 10 WSW ZZV 30 SW MFD 30 E FDY 40 NNW MFD.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
CRE 25 ESE FAY 15 NNW DAN 20 S LYH 25 ESE LYH 40 WSW RIC ORF 55 ESE
ORF.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
TUL 25 N PNC 20 SE MCK 10 W BFF 35 NNE TOR 35 ESE CDR 20 NW GRI 35
NE MHK 50 SW SZL 55 SW CKV 50 E MKL 45 SE MKL 10 ESE MEM 30 NE LIT
25 WNW RUE 15 NNW TUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 N OLF 25 WNW SDY
65 SSE Y22 25 WNW ONL 20 NNE LNK 15 NE STJ 30 WSW COU 30 NW CGI 25
ESE CKV 40 W CSV 20 WNW CHA 30 E HSV 40 SSW MSL 60 ENE PBF 20 NNW
RKR DDC 25 NNW LAR 35 E RIW 10 NNE WRL 45 E SHR 10 W 4BQ 25 SW MLS
50 NNE LWT 50 ESE CTB 30 WSW CTB 20 ESE GPI 65 NE GEG 60 NNE GEG 90
NE OMK ...CONT... 100 S MRF 35 W 6R6 60 N DRT 25 NW HDO 45 ENE COT
15 NNE NIR 45 WNW LBX 15 NNE HOU 15 N LCH 10 NNE MCB 20 NNE TOI 40 N
SAV 30 SSW FLO 15 S SOP 25 NE JKL 20 NNW MIE 40 E SBN 25 ESE LAN 75
ESE BAX ...CONT... 70 W BUF 30 S BUF 40 E BFD 25 SSE CXY 20 WSW ILG
15 SSE PHL 10 SW JFK 10 NE ISP 25 S GON 45 SE BID.

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 21, 12:18z for portions of ILN

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