PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 22, 11:58 AM CDT786
FXUS63 KPAH 221658
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A more robust chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to
the forecast for the weekend into early next week. Average
storm total rainfall is forecast to be 1 to 3 inches, but
locally higher amounts are possible, especially across SEMO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Elevated instability may touch off a shower/storm early this
morning, and cool temps aloft means small hail will be possible
with any tstorm. However, most convection will stay just south
and west of the FA.
Surface high pressure under the broader long wave trof will keep
us mostly dry and seasonally cool ending this work week, with
temperatures remaining in the 60s-70s and dew points mostly in
the 40s.
Heading into the weekend, the high slides east, as does the
heart of the long wave trof and we go a little teleconnected
ridging aloft. As energy from the Plains starts to spill
into/overtop the weak ridge, it flattens and we get into a
little better convective environment as dew points recover into
the 50s. Pops increase with the surging elements from the
primary Plains storm system moving overtop the FA. This will
bring off/on chance of showers/storms esp over the back half of
the weekend into early next week, with the main impact being a
broad swath forecast of 1-3" average storm total rainfall. It's
possible there will be locally higher totals, esp across SEMO.
These totals will gradually heighten the risk of flooding with
time over the weekend into early next week. They may also
contain some risk of stronger to potentially severe storms, but
for now, the main impact hazard looks like heavy rain/flooding.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Gusty winds above 20 kts this afternoon will diminish in the
evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Winds tonight into
Friday will generally be light and variable between 3-6 kts.
Clouds will remain mainly in the mid to high levels, but FEW
2.5 kft AGL is possible at KPAH/KCGI Friday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 22, 11:58 AM CDT---------------
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