LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 9:11 PM EDT640
FXUS63 KLMK 220111
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
911 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Well below normal temperatures are expected through the first part
of Memorial Day weekend.
* Continuing to monitor a low pressure system late weekend into
early next week that will bring another round of strong storms. 1
to 3 inches of rain is currently forecasted.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025
Upper low and associated sfc low will continue to pinwheel over the
Great Lakes tonight into tomorrow. Clouds over Indiana may drop
south towards the Ohio Valley with winds generally out of the west.
Should remain steady with a few occasional gusts around 15 maybe 20
mph. Overall the forecast looks to be on track so no changes
expected this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025
The cold front is pushing through the region this morning and
afternoon, which has allowed temperatures to drop 10-15 degrees
below normal. The low pressure system will begin to wrap up to the
northeast of the region, as an upper level low develops over the
Great Lakes. Due to this clouds have continued to stream over the
northern half of the region, keeping temperatures cooler than the
southern half of the region. Wouldnt completely rule out an
isolated, light shower along and north of I-64 later this afternoon
and into the evening. Additionally, tighter pressure gradients are
keeping sustained westerly winds up around 12-16mph and gusting up
to 30mph.
The low pressure and upper level low will remain over the region
through Thursday. This will keep weak troughing over the lower OH
Valley. In the overnight, winds will remain steady out of the WNW
helping to keep any fog chances at bay, despite the saturated
grounds and mostly clear skies. Low temperatures will be in the 50s.
Thursday, breezy northwesterly sustained winds 12-15mph and gusting
up to 25mph. In the afternoon, could see some isolated light showers
develop, however moisture is limited to below 800mb. High
temperatures will again be below normal in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025
The upper low will begin to move off to the northeast on Friday,
bringing a drier stretch through the weekend. With continued
northwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will warm slightly, but
remain cooler than normal. High pressure will build over the region
on Saturday, again keeping conditions drier and winds light.
Continuing to monitor early next week, as an upper low and surface
low may develop over the central Plains. It would likely track
northeast through the Ohio Valley, placing the lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys in the warm sector of this system. This could
bring strong storms to the lower Ohio Valley early next week. A
similar set up to the severe weather threat ongoing today.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025
Impacts:
- Gusty westerly winds continue overnight into tomorrow. Gusts of 20-
25kt
- Increasing mid-level clouds tomorrow afternoon
- Remaining VFR
As an upper low and its associated sfc low over the Great Lakes
continues to pinwheel over the region. As it slowly works eastward,
we will remain breezy with the occasional high to mid-level clouds.
For now will keep the forecast VFR but will see gusty westerly winds
through the forecast. There is a low chance of precipitation
tomorrow but for now decided to take the mention of showers out of
he TAFs for now.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 9:11 PM EDT---------------
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