PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 12:28 PM CDT457
FXUS63 KPAH 211728
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1228 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
tonight over southern portions of southeast Missouri and west
Kentucky. Isolated small hail cannot be ruled out.
- Cooler temperatures for mid to late week with drier
conditions.
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025
Broad troughing has become established across the north central
US this morning and will continue through the day. An upper
level disturbance within the cyclonic flow aloft now across the
Rockies is forecast to move southeast across the central plains
today. Surface low pressure is moving across the Ohio Valley
with northwesterly surface flow in place. Expecting dry
conditions today with highs in the 70's. Tonight, the
disturbance previously discussed will move across the Ozarks
and into the Mid-South overnight. A low level baroclinic zone
will be present with a 20-30 knot low level jet impinging on
this boundary. Showers and storms are expected to develop on the
cool side of the boundary tonight with a NW to SE movement.
We do expect these showers and a few elevated thunderstorms to
move into portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.
Can't rule out brief small hail with any of the stronger
thunderstorms.
Troughing aloft moves east toward the northeast Thursday and
Friday bringing northwest flow across the region. Surface
ridging and northwest flow aloft will promote mostly dry weather
Thursday into Friday before a few disturbances and warm air
advection bring increasing chances of showers and storms to the
region for the weekend and into early next week. Cooler
temperatures are expected Thursday into Saturday before we see
moderating temperatures associated with warm air advection.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF
issuance. Mid clouds may brush through the CGI/PAH TAF site
later this evening and overnight with a very small chance for a
rain shower to pass through as well. The best chance of that
happening will be near the AR/MO border. Breezy conditions will
diminish this evening, just after sunset.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 12:28 PM CDT---------------
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