CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 18, 3:36 AM EDT884
FXUS61 KCLE 180736
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
336 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will linger over the area through late morning before
high pressure builds south across the area this afternoon
through Tuesday. Low pressure moves into the Ohio River Valley
on Wednesday, before departing off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The nearly vertically-stacked low pressure will continue to move
east towards New England this morning, allowing for a surface
trough to linger over the area. Additional low to mid level
moisture will keep clouds around today with isolated chances of
light, drizzle type showers in far northwestern Pennsylvania. By
this afternoon, a Canadian high pressure will begin to push
south across the Great Lakes region, allowing for a period of
dry conditions to persist through the end of this period. Some
peaks of sunshine are possible today with more widespread
sunshine expected Monday. Given the origin of this high pressure
airmass, temperatures are expected to remain cool through the
period with highs only climbing into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 40s, possible
touching the 50s across the far western counties. There is no
current concern with frost/freeze potential, but will continue
to monitor the temperature trends in models for the overnight
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front to the southwest will bring overrunning precipitation
northeastward into the CWA as low pressure tracks from the central
plains region into the Ohio Valley. The warm sector from this low
pressure system will not actually make it into our area with the
surface low staying south, and strong low/mid level frontogenesis
sets up to the north of the surface low. This will set up a scenario
for persistent shower activity CWA wide into Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. High pressure influences from over Hudson Bay will keep
cool northeasterly flow in the area and will have temperatures still
a good 10 degrees below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As the surface low departs to the east, a series of surface troughs
will swing through the Great Lakes, reinforcing the cooler
conditions across the region. The upper level pattern remains trough
dominant over the eastern third of the CONUS, keeping single digit
850mb temperatures over a large swath with unsettled conditions with
chance POPs through the end of the week. Slow airmass modification
will take place with temperatures slowly creeping back towards
normal for the weekend. Until then, the Thursday time frame looks to
be the coolest day of the 7 day forecast with temperatures likely
not getting out of the 50s for most.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A lingering surface trough has allowed for clouds to linger over
the area tonight, with heights generally ranging from 5-7kft.
These VFR conditions are expected to persist for western
terminals through the period, with terminals along and east of
I71 expected to have ceilings lower to 2-3kft this morning. All
terminals should rebound to VFR by the end of the period as high
pressure and drier air push over the area. There is a slight
chance of light, drizzle like rain showers at KERI early today,
however these should not cause conditions to diminish.
Winds today will remain from the west-northwest at 10-15 knots,
with strongest winds expected closest to the lakeshore. By
mid-morning, terminals will have gusts up to 20 knots possible.
The sustained winds and gusts will diminish to 5-10 knots
tonight as they gradually shift to gain more of a northerly
component.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times Tuesday night through
Thursday night as low pressure brings occasional rain and lower
clouds to the region.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories continue as west winds 20kts become
northwesterly 10-15kts this evening with wave heights decreasing to
1-3ft, and northerly winds 10kts Sunday night. High pressure keeps
the onshore flow going through midweek, with northeasterly winds
becoming dominant 10-20kts as a low pressure system approaches and
wave heights 2-4ft in the eastern basin of LAke Erie and 3-5ft in
the central basin.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
LEZ145>148.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 18, 3:36 AM EDT---------------
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