[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 18, 12:53z for portions of PAH

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 18, 12:53z for portions of PAH

104 
WUUS01 KWNS 181255
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

VALID TIME 181300Z - 191200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   34640027 36520045 37660088 38430175 39050365 39880485
       40600509 41270488 42070374 42260097 40919597 38929204
       38069045 37078957 35948972 34359228 32219624 31329844
       30260065 30650173 31570164 33290077 34640027
0.05   33200052 34619993 36480009 37650045 38520116 39010215
       39360341 40190432 41350336 41410170 40059801 38889547
       37389441 36259409 35069415 33149530 32289652 31539865
       30490068 30680154 31610147 33200052
0.10   38150022 39000126 39650234 39990247 40350212 40350147
       39439849 38759729 37359625 36609629 35749767 34709885
       34749965 36979973 38150022
0.15   36719945 38280007 38749973 39009907 38889850 38159788
       37179777 36689826 36539895 36719945
SIGN   38170020 38910115 39440072 39839977 39429847 38769729
       37379628 36609630 36379669 35749769 34719885 34759965
       37009973 38170020
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   30638033 31658417 32128674 32328814 32509177 32169547
       31029830 29630016 28740097
0.05   29470231 31620183 33290088 34870031 36460039 37720091
       38450178 39060372 39860486 41030539 41770486 42920240
       43449826 43189664 41059285 38978952 35938693 34038390
       31657751
0.15   37690043 38460115 39050226 39330336 40120430 41120452
       41890402 42400224 42430041 41809684 41219524 39319235
       38809192 37609208 36159287 33219523 32289642 31509866
       30450066 30700151 31560151 33200050 34599991 36470010
       37690043
0.30   38140023 39030133 39750265 40210356 41010384 41600366
       42140163 41950038 39039573 38169547 36909581 35669781
       34759783 33429714 32969780 32759901 33219983 34729962
       36909970 38140023
SIGN   37640038 38410104 39050227 39300330 40190433 40930410
       41580304 41810179 41780015 40949822 38969547 37129487
       34259514 32269646 31549856 30490066 30700149 31570154
       33160054 34609994 36480010 37640038
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   29470231 31560182 33320088 34910031 36520038 37710094
       38470185 39040370 39850483 41070536 41740488 42340364
       42620144 42289771 41239401 38988966 36028712 33968385
       31677779
0.05   30708052 31678438 32358849 32489168 32179543 31019831
       29650012 28690100
0.15   41840406 42130269 42170132 41970024 41519966 41019982
       40200026 39730154 39670321 40150426 41100457 41840406
0.15   31400106 34009962 34909966 36959970 38120016 39399930
       40059761 39849600 39299410 38149310 37019298 35389353
       33179529 32329651 31619862 30820006 31400106
0.15   33848584 33768463 33298318 32718297 32418327 32448492
       32658594 32998616 33848584
0.15   34969138 34578966 33908860 33218869 33018948 33489129
       34109205 34969138
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

MDT    38749973 39009907 38889850 38159788 37179777 36689826
       36539895 36719945 38280007 38749973
ENH    41600366 42140163 41950038 39039573 38169547 36909581
       35629781 34759783 33429714 32969780 32759901 33219983
       34729962 36979973 38140023 39030133 40210356 41010384
       41600366
SLGT   33848584 33768463 33298318 32718297 32418327 32448492
       32658594 32998616 33848584
SLGT   34969138 34578966 33908860 33218869 33018948 33489129
       34109205 34969138
SLGT   41890402 42400224 42430041 41809684 41219524 39319235
       38809192 37609208 36159287 33219523 32289642 31509866
       30450066 30680154 31560151 33200052 34619993 36470010
       36820020 37650045 38460115 39030222 39330336 40120430
       41100457 41890402
MRGL   30758077 31678438 32338838 32489168 32169545 31019831
       29650012 28690100 99999999 29470231 31620183 33320088
       34910031 36520045 37710094 38460184 39040370 39860486
       41030539 41770486 42920240 43449826 43189664 41059285
       38978952 35938693 34038390 32327932
TSTM   45266640 44966786 43836938 44047048 45167105 48676856
       99999999 30067961 30408278 30678600 31028992 31189161
       31219335 31119543 30609685 28170095 99999999 28660312
       30500248 31940190 33620124 34050104 34710096 35460120
       36670152 37900189 38290312 38070432 37450484 36240622
       35630779 35191074 35651256 36361358 37141424 38481405
       38961352 39631272 40471225 41411204 42721182 44261154
       45681145 46431155 47371224 47741389 47611481 46581531
       45361501 44821622 45051813 45421866 46051906 49751946
       99999999 49370444 48550231 47439959 44639286 43409128
       41148867 39008629 37148544 36018450 35318334 33577967
       32867801 99999999 26738220 27648228 28428153 28048056
       27078011 26218005 25748026 25528060 25828168 26738220

&&
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
HLC 15 NW RSL 15 E RSL HUT 40 SSW ICT 25 ESE AVK 25 SW AVK 45 W AVK
35 N DDC 45 S HLC.

THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
BFF 30 WNW MHN 35 E MHN TOP 35 N CNU 15 NE BVO 20 NW OKC 25 SSE CHK
35 SW GYI 20 NE MWL 45 ENE ABI 55 N ABI 20 WNW LTS 55 SSE DDC 30 NNW
DDC 30 SE GLD 20 W AKO 45 W SNY 20 S BFF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
GAD 15 NW ATL 45 S AHN 40 E MCN 30 SE MCN CSG 30 W AUO 45 SSW ANB 15
ESE GAD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
LIT 15 NNW UOX 20 NNW CBM 30 SSW CBM 50 SE GWO 20 W GLH 10 SW PBF 50
ENE LIT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
TOR 35 NE AIA 25 WSW ANW 35 ESE OFK 35 NNE SDA 35 NNW COU 15 E COU
10 SSE TBN 20 ESE HRO 30 SSE PRX 15 N CRS 25 SE BWD 55 W JCT 60 NE
6R6 45 S BGS 75 NW ABI 25 ENE CDS 60 SE LBL 45 ESE LBL 25 SE GCK 45
NNW GCK 15 SSE ITR 15 ENE LIC 40 NE DEN 15 ESE CYS 15 SSE TOR.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
SSI 15 NW ABY 20 E MEI 20 E MLU 15 SSW TYR 55 W TPL 50 ENE DRT 45 S
DRT ...CONT... 40 S 6R6 30 SE MAF 60 ESE LBB 35 N CDS 45 SE LBL 20
SW GCK 55 ENE LAA 15 S LIC DEN 25 SE LAR 40 WSW TOR 35 E CDR 25 SSW
MHE 30 S FSD 20 W OTM 30 E ALN 20 SW BNA 35 W AHN 60 SE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE EPM 40 W EPM 40
SSE AUG 30 NNW PWM 35 N BML 125 N CAR ...CONT... 105 E SGJ 40 SE VLD
30 ESE CEW 35 ESE MCB 35 SSW HEZ 15 NW POE 25 N UTS 30 W CLL 85 S
DRT ...CONT... 110 SSW 6R6 35 NNW 6R6 20 E MAF 35 E LBB 40 ESE PVW
45 WNW CDS 20 SE BGD GUY 45 ESE LAA 30 NE LHX 15 SSE PUB 30 WNW TAD
45 ENE 4SL 30 N GNT 10 N INW 30 SW GCN 50 S SGU 35 W SGU 55 W MLF 45
NW MLF 20 NNW U24 25 SW SLC 15 N OGD 40 ESE PIH 35 SW WEY 15 WSW BZN
25 ESE HLN 40 W GTF 45 SSE GPI 25 E 3TH 35 NNE P69 55 WNW SMN MYL 20
NW BKE 20 SSE PDT 25 NNW PDT 90 N OMK ...CONT... 90 NNW ISN 50 WNW
MOT 55 NW JMS 25 SE MSP 35 S LSE 15 S MMO 20 ESE BMG 55 ENE BWG 30
WNW TYS 45 W AVL 45 S FLO 80 SE CRE ...CONT... 25 WNW FMY 25 NE SRQ
15 SW ORL MLB 25 N PBI 30 NNE MIA MIA 30 SW MIA 25 SSE APF 25 WNW
FMY.

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 18, 12:53z for portions of PAH

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