CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 17, 7:38 PM EDT876
FXUS61 KCLE 172338
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough lingers over the Lake Erie region and Upper Ohio Valley
through early afternoon on Sunday as a low wobbles eastward
from the northeastern Great Lakes toward northern New England.
During the remainder of Sunday through Monday, a ridge builds
from the Upper Midwest. The ridge begins to exit eastward as
another trough begins to overspread our area from the northern
and central Great Plains this Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A nearly vertically-stacked low at the surface and aloft
wobbles E'ward from the northeastern Great Lakes toward northern
New England through sunset Sunday evening as a ridge aloft
builds slowly from the northern Great Plains. Simultaneously, a
weakening surface trough lingers over the Lake Erie region and
Upper OH Valley before the ridge at the surface begins to build
from the Upper Midwest by mid-afternoon on Sunday. This weather
pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will allow net low-
level CAA to impact our CWA. Overnight lows are expected to
reach the upper 40's to mid 50's around daybreak Sunday morning.
Sunday's late afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid to
upper 50's in NW PA and the upper 50's to upper 60's in northern
OH amidst intervals of sunshine.
Primarily fair weather is expected through sunset Sunday evening
as synoptic-scale subsidence follows the recent E'ward cold
front passage. However, very isolated rain showers are possible
roughly along and east of I-71 through this early evening due
to self-destructive sunshine (i.e. thermals reaching their
CCL's and releasing appreciable amounts of surface-based CAPE in
the process) due to a combination of diurnal warming and
notable cooling of the atmospheric column aloft. Finally, after
midnight tonight through about midday Sunday, net low-level CAA
on the synoptic-scale, upward heat/moisture fluxes from ~58F
Lake Erie into overlying air, and W'erly to WNW'erly upslope
flow may allow isolated rain showers to impact the higher
terrain of NW PA and vicinity.
Fair weather is expected region-wide Sunday night as the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the
Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, and allows synoptic-scale
stabilizing subsidence to persist in northern OH and NW PA.
Weaker surface winds and pockets of clear sky will contribute to
lows reaching the lower to upper 40's in NW PA and the lower
40's to lower 50's in northern OH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly quiet weather is expected for the first half of the short
term period as high pressure builds south across the Great Lakes on
Monday. Could see some frost Monday night into Tuesday morning,
especially across interior portions of Northwest Pennsylvania and
perhaps into far Northeast Ohio as well with clear skies and light
winds.
High pressure will slowly retreat back towards the north on Tuesday,
although its influence should keep much of the area dry for the
first half of the day. By late Tuesday, a weakening low pressure
system will arrive from the west, with a large upper-level trough
beginning to develop across the Eastern CONUS. Widespread rain is
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with perhaps a rumble
of thunder or two possible with limited instability present. This
should be a soaking rain for much of the area with rainfall totals
between one-half and three-quarters of an inch.
Below-average temperatures are expected for the short term period
with highs in the low to mid-60s and lows ranging from the upper 30s
to lower 40s on Monday to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main story for the long term period will be the persistent upper-
level troughing regime across the Eastern CONUS with below-average
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. The root cause
of this dreary and seasonable-cool weather will be an upper-level
low dropping down south from Hudson Bay on Wednesday, reaching the
apex of the Lower and Eastern Great Lakes by Friday. This upper-
level trough will be accompanied by persistent surface troughing and
~0C 850 mb temperatures, resulting in periodic rain showers, perhaps
somewhat aided by a ~14C Lake Erie, across the area Wednesday
through Friday. Some model guidance suggests surface high pressure
building south across the Great Lakes by Saturday, though the upper-
level pattern appears to suggest continued troughing across New
England.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A BKN to OVC cloud deck, generally above 5,000 feet, is overhead
out of the gate this evening. Some holes in that cloud deck will
move through overnight, especially from CLE and MFD points west.
A more solid deck of clouds will return early Sunday, with
ceilings lowering to under 5,000 feet and likely to MVFR at most
TAF sites. At TOL and FDY, am not expecting MVFR to last longer
than a few hours, though farther east it may take until later in
the afternoon or early in the evening for ceilings to climb back
to VFR and/or scatter out. A few sprinkles are possible across
the higher terrain of Northwest PA Sunday morning.
Winds will remain westerly at 6 to 12 knots tonight, though
should lose their gustiness outside of ERI and perhaps CLE.
Gusts to 20-25kt will return Sunday morning, before winds begin
shifting and slowly subsiding into Sunday night.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times Tuesday night through
Thursday night as low pressure brings occasional rain and lower
clouds to the region.
&&
.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions continue across Lake Erie today, with
westerly flow of 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. Westerly flow
of 15 to 25 knots will persist through tonight and into Sunday,
perhaps lingering across the far eastern basin of the lake into
Sunday evening. For this reason, did extend the SCA for all coastal
areas with this update. Otherwise, mostly quiet marine conditions
should prevail until about mid-week where enhanced north to
northeast flow of 15 to 20 knots develops across Lake Erie. Small
Craft Advisories could return during this timeframe, particularly
across the central basin.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ145>148.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Kahn
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 17, 7:38 PM EDT---------------
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