MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 3:29 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...354
FXUS64 KMOB 142029
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
329 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Now through Thursday night...
14.12Z upper air maps show a trough axis at high levels positioned
over the southeast US, with a high level northwest flow in place
over the local area. Embedded in this flow is a very subtle
disturbance bringing a patch of clouds east southeast across the
interior this afternoon and very isolated weak returns on radar in
the form of a few isolated showers or sprinkles moving across the
Hwy 84 corridor. Considering the coverage and the presence of deep
layer dry air in place, rain chances less than 10%. Any
amounts will be brief and light up that way. For the remainder of
the near term, upper ridging over the Gulf amplifies with the
northern extent of the ridge to be aligned over the forecast area.
Deep layer dry air to be in place. Surface high remains positioned
to our east, favoring a persistence in south to southwest flow and
well above normal low temperatures tonight and Thursday night. Highs
lift into the upper 80's/lower 90's over the interior Thursday and
some 4 to 9 degrees above normal. Along the coast, highs tempered
somewhat in the lower half of the 80's by flow off the Gulf will be
closer to normal for mid May.
A Moderate Risk of rip currents holds through the period, although a
brief period of HIGH Risk cannot be ruled out for late tonight/into
Thursday morning. /10
Friday through Wednesday...
Heat Indices around 100 expected most days with strong to severe
storms possible Saturday and Sunday, then again Wednesday.
An upper level ridge stretching north from upper level high pressure
over the Gulf sees some flattening over the Southeast Friday into
Saturday as a series of upper level shortwaves move east over the
Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast. A weak cold front
moves south over the Southeast Friday into Saturday in response to
the passing energy, stalling near the I-20 corridor. Surface high
pressure located over the northeastern Gulf keeps the Southeast
under southerly flow, and with the moisture pooling near the
advancing front (read along and north of Highway 84), precipitable
h20 values rise into the 1.5"-1.8" range over the northern third of
the forecast area for the weekend. Upper subsidence will help to
counter balance the instability and bring isolated to scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to areas
along and north of Highway 84. The boundary is its strongest
Saturday, with weakening on Sunday as the southerly flow begins to
wash the boundary out Sunday into the coming week, with increasing
subsidence as the upper ridge begins to build north over the
Mississippi River. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are again possible along and north of Highway 84. A strong upper
level shortwave trough moves across the Southern Plains to Southeast
late Tuesday through Wednesday, with another weak front moving
across the forecast area late Wednesday through Wednesday night,
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast
area mid week.
With the weekend and middle of the week events, there is a risk of
strong to severe storms. MLCapes topping out in the 2000-2500J/kg
range over the northern third of the forecast area and north
Saturday, and along the northern border Sunday, combined with DCapes
in the 800-1100J/kg range and Effective Bulk Shear near 40kts,
damaging winds are possible from more organized storms, especially
in the afternoon and evening. Sunday's numbers are lower, but still
high enough for a few worrisome storms to form. Ahead of the
approaching cold front Wednesday, MLCapes around 1500J/kg, DCapes of
700-100J/kg and Effective Bulk Shear around 40kts are present.
Instability is meh at this point, but the other parameters may bring
a few strong to marginally severe storms. Will need to monitor,
especially this weekend, with outdoor events.
Looking at temperatures, upper 80s well inland form the coast to low
90s, mid 80s near the coast are expected each day. With moisture
levels on the increase, Heat Indices topping out in the 95-105
degree range are expected each day. Low temperatures in the upper
60s to low 70s inland from the coast, mid 70s along the coast are
expected each night through the Extended.
A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents this weekend decreases in the
coming week as onshore swell and the tidal cycle decreases.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
A few to scattered cig bases generally 2 to 4 kft this afternoon
for the TAF sites. With high pressure positioned to the east of
the local area, a south to southwest flow is maintained 10 to 15
kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon. Winds relax after
15.00Z. /10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through the
period. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 68 87 71 88 71 89 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
Pensacola 73 85 74 85 75 87 74 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 74 84 75 85 75 86 75 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 64 92 67 93 68 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 20
Waynesboro 65 92 68 93 70 92 69 91 / 0 10 0 0 0 30 10 20
Camden 65 90 68 92 70 91 69 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 30 20 30
Crestview 66 89 67 91 68 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 3:29 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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