MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 6:35 AM CDT ...New Aviation...846
FXUS64 KMOB 141135
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
635 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Now Through Thursday Night...
A northwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist through Thursday
as an upper ridge builds over the Gulf. Its axis passes overhead
Thursday night. At the surface, high pressure remains planted over
the Florida Peninsula, helping to maintain southwesterly winds
across the area. With strong subsidence in place and PWATs only
around an inch, no rain is expected through the period.
Temperatures and dew points will continue to increase as ridging
builds in and low-level moisture advects in from the Gulf. Highs
today will reach the mid to upper 80s, increasing to the upper 80s
to low 90s for Thursday. Lows tonight and Thursday night will
only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. A Moderate Risk of rip
currents will be in place through the period, although a brief
High Risk cannot be ruled out for Thursday morning. /96
Friday Through Tuesday...
The upper ridge over the southeast states will become rather
flattened Friday night through Saturday as a upper closed low
pressure area over northern Minnesota moves eastward over the Great
Lakes region. Another upper ridge will then build over the eastern
CONUS Sunday night into Tuesday. There is not a lot happening in the
low levels as a surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic
into the eastern Gulf persists, thus maintaining a light southerly
flow through the period.
This pattern will keep temperatures above normal, with highs
averaging about 4 to 8 degrees above normal interior areas and from
1 to 3 degrees above normal closer to the coast. We are not making
any modifications to the NBM guidance, and expect highs to range
from 90 to 95 degrees interior areas, and from 85 to 90 degrees
closer to the coast. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) are
expected to be in mid to upper 90s each day away from the immediate
coast. Lows will average about 8 to 12 degrees above normal across
the entire forecast area, and settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
We should see mid 70s along the beaches each night.
There could be some isolated to low-end scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of U.S. Highway 84 over the weekend as the upper
closed low pressure area passes well to our north and upper level
impulses traverse our region in zonal flow aloft. Otherwise it will
be dry. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Light southerly to southwesterly winds this morning will increase
to around 10-15 knots this afternoon, with gusts as high as 20-25
knots. Winds decrease back to 5-10 knots this evening. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through
the period. Exercise caution headlines may be needed tonight for
marine waters off the Alabama coast. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 85 69 88 71 88 71 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Pensacola 83 73 86 74 85 75 86 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Destin 82 74 83 75 85 76 86 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 88 65 91 69 93 68 93 68 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 20 10
Waynesboro 89 65 92 69 93 70 92 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 20 10
Camden 88 66 91 69 92 68 90 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 30 10
Crestview 87 66 89 68 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 6:35 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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