IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 8:56 PM EDT415
FXUS63 KIWX 090056
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
856 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder Friday morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Patchy to areas of frost will be possible especially for the
areas in southern Michigan. Protect your frost sensitive
plants.
- Pleasant through the weekend with highs in the 60s on Friday
and warming into the 70s to around 80 early next week.
Temperatures a bit cooler near the lake.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin late Monday night
and increase on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley remain situated between mid
level ridging across the Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and a negative
upper height anomaly across southeast Ontario/western Quebec.
This pattern has been conducive for ongoing low level cold/dry
air advection across the region. A reinforcing shot of low level
cold advection is anticipated later tonight as the southeast
Canadian upper trough digs southward. Frost potential still
appears to be in place, particularly north of US 6, but some
questions still persist as to how well near sfc will remain
mixed overnight. Ridge axis will remain situated west of the
area, keeping a moderate northeasterly gradient in place. At
this time still feel best chance of more widespread frost is
across southern Lower Michigan, but patchy to areas of frost
cannot be ruled out across portions of far northwest
Ohio/northwest Indiana. Have expanded the patchy frost mention
south of the frost advisory area, and have updated the HWO to
include patchy frost potential for areas outside of the current
advisory. Some consideration has been given to areal expansion
of frost advisory, but confidence in coverage at this time
remains on the low side.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
A slow moving cold post frontal trough has been gradually
moving southward through the area and has increased the cloud
cover across the area and increased chances of light rain/sprinkles
as it does so. We will see drier air behind this boundary begin
to push southward and with that a decrease in the clouds as we
go into the evening tonight. Winds will also be on the decrease
and with more optimal radiational cooling conditions will see
lows drop into the mid to upper 30s tonight with the coldest
temperatures on our northern side of the CWA especially for our
southern MI counties. A frost advisory for those areas has been
issued to address that concern. May want to be proactive and
cover your frost sensitive plants just in case. This will lead
up to one more cool day on Friday with highs in the 60s.
Ridging over the central CONUS will continue to move eastward
with the blocky omega pattern finally flattening out and losing
its grip this weekend. This will allow for the mostly dry
weather to continue through Mother's Day weekend along with
a warming trend for temperatures. By Saturday and Sunday we will
be in the mid to upper 70s for most locations. Of course a bit
cooler near Lake Michigan will be the theme with the lake water
temperatures still in the mid to upper 40s. Further warming
early next week with with the ridge axis moving further eastward
into the region with highs on Monday through Wednesday into the
upper 70s and low 80s. Highs may be muted slightly on Tuesday
and Wednesday with a low pressure disturbance from the Gulf
moving northeastward into the Ohio River Valley which will
increase clouds and chances for afternoon showers/thunderstorms.
Ridging returns by Thursday and a return to dry conditions and
slightly warmer weather with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
Much drier low level air is advecting across northern Indiana
this evening. VFR low clouds have shifted south of terminals,
with mainly clear skies expected to prevail for the bulk of this
forecast valid period. An upper level trough across southeast
Ontario/southwest Quebec will dig southward across the eastern
Great Lakes with reinforcing shot of cold air advection. Better
cold advection stratocu potential should remain across
northwest Ohio and points eastward. Northeast winds around 10
knots may not fully decouple tonight given ongoing cold
advection, but speeds may drop to around 5 knots later this
evening/overnight. North-northeast flow favored into Friday as
low level ridge axis remains oriented from northern Lower
Michigan to the Corn Belt.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Friday for
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 8:56 PM EDT---------------
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