CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 9:14 PM EDT719
FXUS61 KCLE 100114
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
914 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge continues to nose into our region from the
Lower Missouri Valley before a moisture-starved cold front
drifts southward through northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon through the wee hours of Sunday
morning. Behind the front, another ridge affects our area
through this Monday as the parent high pressure center moves
from northern Ontario to Atlantic waters well east of the
Delmarva Peninsula.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
910 PM Update...
No major changes this evening. Quiet and clear and the boundary
is decoupling. Temperatures will continue to drop, and will
leave the temperatures and frost forecast where they are. Far
western zones will be warm advecting off the surface and will
keep the frost out of that area with surface temperatures
likely staying just high enough.
Previous Discussion...
Aloft, primarily N'erly flow backs to NW'erly tonight as a
shortwave ridge builds from the northern and western Great
Lakes. At the surface, the ridge continues to nose into our CWA
from the Lower MO Valley. Mainly clear sky and dry weather are
expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. A
weakening synoptic MSLP gradient will allow our regional surface
winds to become light and variable or calm this evening through
daybreak Saturday. The aforementioned sky and wind conditions
combined with relatively-low humidity at/near the surface will
promote efficient radiational cooling this evening through
daybreak. Widespread low temperatures in the lower to mid 30's
and areas of frost formation are expected roughly south of
I-90, east and south of roughly I-271, and farther south roughly
along and east of I-71, but also in the majority of Marion,
Morrow, and Knox Counties. Thus, a Frost Advisory is in effect
from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for much of NW PA and northern
OH. Elsewhere, lows in mainly the upper 30's to mid 40's are
expected. Patchy frost formation is expected where 2 meter AGL
lows reach the upper 30's and will be accompanied by a strong
radiation inversion.
On Saturday, NW'erly flow aloft becomes cyclonic over our CWA
as the shortwave ridge exits SE'ward and is followed by subtle
SE'ward-moving shortwave disturbances. Overnight Saturday night,
the NW'erly flow aloft eventually becomes anticyclonic as a
longwave ridge begins to build from the northern Great Plains
and vicinity. At the surface, the aforementioned ridge continues
to affect our region before a cold front drifts S'ward through
our CWA Saturday afternoon through the wee hours of Sunday
morning. Behind the front, another ridge builds from northern ON
through daybreak Sunday. Fair weather is expected to persist
due to stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridges and
limited low-level moisture along and ahead of the cold front.
Abundant sunshine and weak low-level WAA ahead of the cold front
should allow Saturday afternoon's highs to reach the mid 60's
to near 70F in NW PA and mainly the upper 60's to mid 70's in
northern OH. Nocturnal cooling, complemented by weak low-level
CAA behind the cold front, should allow overnight lows to reach
the lower 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure across the Great Lakes region will continue to support
dry weather across the forecast area. Temperatures on Sunday should
be near to above normal but there will be a dichotomy in values
across the area with northerly flow off Lake Erie with 60s north and
temperatures into the 70s inland. For Monday, the surface high will
move east and a warm front will enter. Temperatures will warm into
the 70s across the entire area. Some shower activity will move into
the area with the front but would be a factor mainly after dark on
Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall, the long term forecast period will be fairly active with
multiple rounds of showers and storms expected. For Tuesday and
Wednesday, a warm front will be through the area and a closed upper
low will slowly move through the Ohio Valley. The combination of the
warm sector of a system and support from this upper low will allow
for showers and storms and there is a non-zero strong to severe
storm potential. The temperature forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
is very conditional on the coverage of clouds and convection but a
general 70s across the area will suffice for now. For Thursday, the
forecast will depend on if the upper low does get kicked out of the
region and an upper ridge can become centered overhead. The current
suite of guidance suggests that will be the case, but blocking
patterns are notorious for slowing with time. When the upper ridge
arrives, temperatures should rise into the 80s for the rest of the
week. Afternoon temperatures could reach convective temperatures and
more scattered convection may form and have some chance PoPs through
the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
High pressure tonight and early Saturday gives way to a cold
front entering from the north after 22Z Saturday. Light and
variable winds tonight become west southwesterly on Saturday
ahead of the cold front around 10kts. Cold front coming through
will be dry, and no ceilings. After 22Z, wind direction change
to northwesterly at TOL should be expected, and after 00Z Sunday
for the other terminals. In the end, VFR prevails.
Outlook...VFR and fair weather are expected through Monday.
Periodic rain showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
forecast this Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Variable flow on Lake Erie will continue tonight into Saturday with
high pressure settling over the Great Lakes region with a weak
trough ahead of it disrupting flow for a bit. High pressure will
become centered over the Great Lakes for Sunday and northerly flow
will be favored. High pressure moves to the east for Monday and a
warm front approaches the lake. The front will clear the lake by
Tuesday and winds will shift to offshore flow, settling on a
southeast wind direction. At this time, marine headlines are not
expected through the period.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ011-013-
014-020>023-029>033-036>038-047.
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 9:14 PM EDT---------------
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