PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 8:11 PM EDT499
FXUS61 KPBZ 080011
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
811 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonable weather continues through tonight. Cold
frontal passage on Thursday will bring afternoon and evening
rain chances with cooler temperatures on Friday. A dry weather
pattern with warming temperature is likely this weekend into
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather for most with seasonable temperatures.
- Some patchy fog later tonight.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The forecast remains on track overall. Some patchy clouds will
continue to float across the region tonight as mid-level flow
briefly turns zonal. With the recent rain and light wind
overnight, some patchy fog is expected tonight in areas where
cloud coverage remains relatively low. Minima in the upper
40s-lower 50s from the ensemble mean seem reasonable.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cold front returns showers for Thursday afternoon/evening.
- Drier weather returns Friday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
As mid-level ridging amplifies in the nrn Plains, a downstream
trough with an axis thru the ern Great Lakes region attempts to
phase with the slow-moving srn-Plains low, introducing
uncertainty into the pattern evolution by Fri.
Thu shows high confidence in a combination of both dynamic
support (synoptic ascent and low-level convergence) and
thermodynamic support (non-trivial buoyancy and insolation) to
generate showers and storms Thu afternoon, especially favoring
the sern two-thirds of the forecast area. Severe wx potential is
low, however, given an unfavorable combination of CAPE and
shear.
Thereafter, ensemble cluster analysis shows high confidence in
a failed attempt at the two phasing, but depicts increasing
uncertainty in the timing of the departure of the trough axis
and speed with which the slow-moving srn low drifts away. If the
trough axis is slower to depart, as some clusters depict,
rain/showers could linger in wrn PA into Fri afternoon with a
tangential impact on temperature, whereas the faster departure
of the trough could spell a more optimistic building in of high
pressure but increasing sun to moderate temps slightly.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warmer for the weekend into early next week.
- Rain chances return by mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A strong and developing trough moving into the wrn CONUS will
nudge the CONUS wx pattern ewd by early next week as the
northcentral-CONUS ridge amplifies with relatively high
confidence while the cutoff low remains trapped to its south.
In response to the approaching western trough, though, another
questionably successful attempt at phasing of the cutoff low is
suggested with higher confidence Mon-Tue.
Timing of the approach of this wrn trough features a degree of
timing uncertainty in the cluster analysis, suggesting a
potentially slower evolution of the above early next week.
In the meantime, the position of this low in the TN Valley will
maintain a deep sly moisture feed into the region, which spells
a warmer, though potentially cloudier and possibly stormier
period (especially in srn zones) early next week until its
influence wanes with its slow wwd drift.
The wrn trough advances ewd by mid-week with moderate confidence,
returning broad swly flow to the CONUS, which spells increasing
warmth and potential storminess for a broad swath of the CONUS.
The biggest uncertainty during this time is in the phasing or
non-phasing of the cutoff low. The wrn trough could absorb the
low leading to upper ridging in the Upper Ohio Valley, or it
could kick it newd, resulting in a prolonged messy period for
the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions have returned to the area this afternoon as a
scattered to broken cu field has lifted to 3-5kft. Expect the
scattering trend to continue through this evening, with VFR
prevailing into the early overnight hours. Ensemble guidance
continues to suggest fog and low stratus redevelopment occurs
after 06z, with the best chances north of PIT and along the
ridges, though high enough probabilities exist elsewhere to
warrant at least a TEMPO at most terminals (except ZZV).
Whatever reductions in ceilings and visibilities do occur,
improvement back to VFR is likely everywhere but FKL/DUJ (which
remain at MVFR) towards the tail end of the TAF period.
Outlook...
Restriction potential and rain chances increase again during the
day Thursday as an upper trough approaches the region. VFR
follows Friday through the weekend as high pressure settles into
the region.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kramar/Rackley
NEAR TERM...Kramar/CL
SHORT TERM...Kramar/Rackley
LONG TERM...Kramar/Rackley/Frazier
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 8:11 PM EDT---------------
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