IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 5, 5:48 AM EDT380
FXUS63 KIWX 050948
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
548 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of light rain to continue into Tuesday
- Highs in the low to mid 60s today and Tuesday.
- Dry and Warmer Wednesday through Saturday with highs in the mid
60s to mid 70s
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
Areas of light rain will continue through Tuesday as the upper low
persists over the region. The low was near the Ohio River and
was nearly stationary early this morning. The low will gradually
come in phase with an upper level system to the north. The track
of the ejecting surface low across Ohio will bring one last
round of deformation type of precipitation into the forecast
area. Model trends and WPC forecasts favor the precipitation
axis along the Indiana and Ohio border. Maximum rainfall amounts
could locally exceed 1.50".
The upper low will eject out of the region and will be replaced
by upper level ridging. The upper level ridge will very gradually
build into the region causing temperatures to rise much above
normal by early next week. High temperatures Monday should be
close to 80. This new pattern will be anomalously dry and will
keep dry weather past next week Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts an upper level vort
max tracking across northwest Indiana with strongest forcing now
shifting into northern Illinois. Some weak subsidence in the wake of
this wave has led to patches of clearing across central Ohio which
has been conducive for fog formation. Farther to the northwest
across far northeast Indiana, a combination fog/stratus setup
appears to be prevailing. This may prevent dense fog formation at
KFWA, but the potential does appear to be in place for at least some
IFR vsbys in fog through 13Z or 14Z. Otherwise, LIFR/IFR conditions
should mix out to MVFR mid to late morning and to VFR this
afternoon. The next upper vort rounding the base of the upper trough
will provide another round of scattered showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm late this afternoon into this evening, with
greatest chances at KFWA where some weak sfc based instability will
likely be present, and also better co-located with stronger
approaching upstream forcing. Some renewed MVFR, or possibly IFR low
clouds, may redevelop late tonight as a low level trough axis
sharpens up across northeast Indiana.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 5, 5:48 AM EDT---------------
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