CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 8:14 PM EDT799
FXUS61 KCLE 080014
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
814 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop across the southern Great Lakes region
Thursday morning followed by strong Canadian high pressure
building across the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast remains on track for tonight with only minor
changes to the cloud cover. A stray thunderstorm is noted
towards Grand Rapids with a corridor of weak instability ahead
of the cold front extending towards Ann Arbor. Can not entirely
rule out a shower developing north of Toledo but think the
window of opportunity on this will diminish within the next hour
or so.
Previous discussion...The weather pattern is finally improving
this afternoon as weak surface high pressure builds south
across the Great Lakes region behind the exiting mid/upper
closed low that is now located over New England. This has
allowed drier air to filter south across the region, and the
scattering out of the clouds has finally encouraged sufficient
mixing to burn off the lingering fog near Lake Erie.
Temperatures have responded nicely to the sunshine, rising into
the upper 60s in most areas except for upper 50s lingering near
the lakeshore. This will set up a pleasant evening.
Moving into tonight, a mid/upper shortwave trough, seen on water
vapor loops over the Upper Midwest this afternoon, will drop across
the Great Lakes as the old upper low lifts toward the Canadian
Maritimes. This will drag a cold front across the region late
tonight and Thursday morning. There will not be much moisture to tap
into, but some mid-level PVA will squeeze out scattered light
showers ahead of the front. Expanded slight chance to chance PoPs
slowly north to south with the front, but the main impact will be
increased cloud cover again. Otherwise, will need to watch for
patchy fog to develop out east late tonight in interior NE Ohio and
NW PA and over the central highlands given the lingering inversion
and wet ground. Kept this limited in coverage with the clouds
expected to increase. Lows tonight will generally stay in the
mid/upper 40s.
Any showers will push south and east of the region by midday
Thursday as strong Canadian high pressure builds across the Great
Lakes in the wake of the front. Overcast skies will linger into the
afternoon, but this should erode from north to south as the drier
air works into the region. Highs will be much cooler Thursday, even
with the afternoon sunshine, given the chilly high pressure and
trough aloft. Highs will range from the mid/upper 50s near the
lakeshore to the low 60s inland. The clear skies and light winds
Thursday night will set up strong radiational cooling, so trended
cooler with lows Thursday night, with upper 30s to low 40s expected.
Isolated colder spots are possible in far NE Ohio and NW PA, so will
need to monitor for frost.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Departing cutoff low to the east takes the minimal leftover POPs in
the far eastern zones with it on Friday, setting up the remainder of
the short term forecast period with a dry forecast. Meanwhile,
another cutoff low will be setting up over the lower Mississippi
Valley, relevant to our CWA because of a broad scale ridge over the
western half of the CONUS. This would normally represent a
significant warming trend as the ridge spreads eastward, but the
aforementioned low will keep it west, and will also stifle the 500mb
height/850mb temperature increases that might otherwise occur. Some
weak ridging will manage to develop over the southern Great Lakes,
but the key feature will be the dry conditions and only gradual
warming through the weekend with airmass modification.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley will slowly meander
north northeastward into the Ohio Valley, bringing its low/mid level
moisture with it. POPs return to the fold after Monday or so, likely
scattered in nature, with thunder expected during the heating hours
with a relative cold pool aloft. Temperatures in the 70s, though
these may come down slightly with the clouds/precipitation in future
forecast runs.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are in place to start the period with a cold
front pushing south across Lake Erie. North to northeast winds
will increase to around 10-14 knots behind the cold front with
MVFR clouds filling in at all terminals overnight. It will take
some time for the clouds to fill in, generally between 06-10Z.
It is not out of the question that patchy IFR could occur,
mainly at higher elevation airports like MFD but confidence was
too low to include in the TAF. Boundary layer moisture mixed out
well this afternoon and with increasing flow behind the front
think it unlikely to see fog develop overnight, except at
perhaps ERI where a brief window could occur between 10-12Z.
Otherwise, with a northeast flow off Lake Erie, skies will tend
to clear from the northeast to southwest on Thursday. Northeast
winds will persist through the day on Thursday at 8-14 knots.
Outlook...VFR is expected through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will eventually sink southward across Lake Erie later
this evening into early tonight with winds increasing over the
western and central basin to 15-20kts out of the north. Wave heights
increase as well to 2-4ft, limited somewhat by the shorter fetch
across this portion of the lake. Winds become northeasterly Thursday
10-20kts and will see the wave heights increase to 2-4ft now further
east along the nearshore waters to Ripley NY. The onshore flow will
persist through Friday night with 1-3ft before becoming light and
variable into the weekend, waves less than 2ft.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...10/Garuckas
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 8:14 PM EDT---------------
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