IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 7:12 PM EDT285
FXUS63 KIND 072312
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
712 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunder tonight
- Scattered to numerous showers and storms Thursday especially south
of I-70
- Briefly cooler Thursday and Friday, then warmer temperatures
return this weekend into early next week
- Rain and storm chances return Monday into Wednesday
&&
.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
Pleasant Spring afternoon in progress as the region resides under
narrow ridging aloft and weak high pressure at the surface. Mid and
high level clouds were present across the area with a few diurnal cu
as well but still seeing a good deal of sunshine. 18Z temperatures
were in the 70s.
The upper ridge will be pinched off by this evening as the upper low
moving out of Oklahoma begins to interact with the broad longwave
trough to our northeast. Weak forcing aloft with a surface
convergence zone will contribute to isolated precip overnight with
greater convective coverage developing Thursday as a cold front
presses south into the region.
The airmass remains dry this afternoon with little to no threat for
any showers through sunset. May see winds briefly gust into the
evening across the northern Wabash Valley as a well defined
pneumonia front expands S/SW from Lake Michigan over the next few
hours. The surge of much cooler air highlighted by temperature drops
of 10-15 degrees in 1-2 hours should largely remain to the northwest
of the area.
A denser area of mid level clouds will gradually expand from
the southwest into the forecast area into this evening then slowly
lower through daybreak Thursday as moisture slowly advects into the
region. As any semblance of the ridging is lost later this
evening...weak mid level forcing will develop with the potential for
at least a few showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder
especially during the predawn hours as soundings show weak elevated
instability. Convective coverage will begin to tick upwards during
the predawn hours focused particularly along and south of I-70 with
a weak surface low approaching from the Missouri Valley and a cold
front tracking south out of the Great Lakes.
The front will continue south towards the Ohio River Thursday as the
aforementioned surface low drifts E/SE across the Ohio Valley.
Increasing isentropic lift along and south of the front will lead to
expanding convective coverage into the afternoon focused again
across southern portions of the forecast area. SBCAPE values may get
as high as 1000 j/kg by the afternoon but overall lapse rates are
generally poor and winds are largely stagnant from the surface
through 700 mb. The result will be disorganized and slow moving
scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunder gradually
shifting south during the afternoon and early evening. Storms may
produce locally heavy rain in excess of an inch in a few spots. As
much drier air advects south from the Great Lakes...skies will clear
late day over northern portions of the forecast area expanding south
through the rest of the region Thursday night.
Temps...temperatures will fall into the 50s tonight and may get as
low as 50 in far northern counties as the front arrives prior to
daybreak. Thursday will be a slightly cooler and breezy day with
highs ranging from the mid 60s north to around 70 south.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
The elongated upper trough extending across the Ohio Valley to begin
Thursday night will kick out east into New England through the
weekend with an upper low cutting off from the flow and drifting
over the lower Mississippi Valley. Ridging will expand over top of
the cutoff low and into the region resulting in dry weather and
warming temperatures through Sunday. The upper low will drift north
into the Ohio Valley early next week before diminishing producing
scattered diurnal convection.
Thursday Night through the Weekend
Lingering showers across southern portions of the forecast area will
be short lived Thursday evening as a strong surface ridge shifts
south from the Great Lakes. Skies will clear and set the stage for a
fantastic weekend with ridging at the surface and aloft across the
Ohio Valley. After a cooler and breezy day Friday in the 60s...highs
will be in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday with abundant sunshine. A
weak frontal boundary will wash out as it slides into the region
Saturday night. This may briefly increase clouds but overall deep
subsidence through the column will keep any cloud expansion subtle.
Monday through Wednesday
The aforementioned upper low which will linger over the lower
Mississippi Valley through the weekend will lift north and into the
Ohio Valley on Monday...lingering across the region before weakening
and getting absorbed by the mean upper level flow to the north by
midweek. The presence of the feature will generate enough forcing
aloft to interact with a moist and unstable airmass to produce
scattered convection focused especially during peak heating in the
afternoon and early evening. A lack of appreciable shear will
support pulse intensity and slow moving showers and storms. Despite
the increase in cloud coverage and chances for rain...afternoon
highs will largely remain in the 70s Monday and Tuesday with 80s
possible Wednesday as the influence of the upper low remnants
diminishes.
The signal for warmer than normal temperatures will continue for
late next week into next weekend as ridging aloft remains favored
across much of the eastern half of the country.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
Impacts:
- Patchy fog predawn Thursday at KBMG and possibly at KHUF
- Few showers Thursday morning focused mainly at KBMG
- MVFR ceilings developing Thursday morning
Discussion:
Mid and high level clouds were streaming across the region early
this evening and will continue to do so through night in advance
of an upper low lifting out of the southern Plains. A chance at
scattered convection will come Thursday as a cold front pushes
south into the area and interacts with the upper level forcing
present. Confidence is greatest in KBMG being impacted.
Patchy fog is possible at KBMG and possibly KHUF in the predawn
hours before diminishing shortly after daybreak. Currently have
not included this in the TAF with confidence too low. MVFR
stratus will advect south Thursday morning in the postfrontal
environment, reaching KLAF and possibly the other terminals by
midday. Light and variable flow through tonight will become E/NE
at 10kts Thursday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 7:12 PM EDT---------------
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