IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 3, 7:04 PM EDT923
FXUS63 KIWX 032304
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
704 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower chances increase overnight from southeast to north,
becoming most widespread after daybreak Sunday.
- Passing showers remain in the forecast through at least
Tuesday, though there be times of dry weather as well.
- Cool Sunday with highs in the 50s followed by a slow warming
trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025
This week's omega block is underway; towering ridge over the Rockies
with one upper-level low swirling over the mid-Mississippi and a
second off the west coast. An area of showers has been stationary
over east-central IL much of this morning. Surface observations
indicate low-level convergence in this area while the main low
center is displaced closer to Cincinnati. Showers remain most
numerous along the I-75 corridor where a stationary boundary resides.
Primarily dry late this afternoon and early evening but shower
chances increase overnight from southeast to north to become
most widespread after daybreak Sunday. Cyclogenesis is
anticipated west of the Appalachians as a 70 knot 500mb jet
rounds the base of the tough. The low-level jet amplifies as
well and a deformation zone is forecast over our area Sunday. A
narrow area of steady rainfall is anticipated for much of
Sunday. Given the slow forward speed of these cut-off lows,
rainfall of +/- 0.75 inches is anticipated while those outside
of the band see notably less.
The upper-level low lingers through at least Tuesday (if not
longer) resulting in daily chances for scattered showers. This low
moves off midweek, displaced by a low emerging from the Four
Corners. This results in a Rex Block over the central CONUS.
Guidance over the past couple of days has trended south with the
subsequent low, permitting our area to dry out and warm up for late-
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025
A upper level low forming over the Ohio River Valley will keep
rain ongoing across the area for much of the day tomorrow. It is
dry this evening, although rain is expected to return late
tonight into tomorrow morning. Rain begins first in the
southeast, spreading northwestward throughout the morning and
afternoon. Rain may be moderate to heavy at times, with MVFR
ceilings and visibilities expected by midday across the area.
With closer proximity to the upper level low, KFWA may see
periods of IFR to even potentially LIFR ceilings tomorrow
evening as low clouds increase. Winds will remain out of the
northeast for the entire duration of the TAF forecast period,
often sustained around 12 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible
at times.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 3, 7:04 PM EDT---------------
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