WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at May 7, 6:06 AM CDT831
AGUS74 KWCO 071113
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #077 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
606 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025
WHAT: Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Southern Louisiana and Mississippi
WHEN: Through the morning
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 2 - 5" (HRRR)
QPE: 2 - 5", locally up to 8" (MRMS)
Rain Rates: 1 - 3"/hr (HRRR)
Soil Moisture: 40 - 90% (NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Above normal to much above normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Another round of heavy rainfall is expected over far southern
Louisiana and into southern Mississippi through this morning. Heavy
rainfall over the course of last night has already resulted in
numerous reports of flooding in southern Louisiana, and this
additional rainfall is falling on already saturated soils that are
conducive for the formation of efficient runoff processes. Urban
areas are most at risk, but areal ponding and out-of-bank rises on
streams are also possible.
Recent runs of the HRRR-forced National Water Model (NWM) have been
consistently placing the most robust signals along the I-10 corridor
through Louisiana, with rapid-onset probabilities (ROF) in the 25 -
75% range. The most recent (10z) run is showing annual exceedance
probabilities (AEPs) from the highflow magnitude service in the 50 -
2% range for the area between the Texas/Louisiana border and the
Mississippi/Alabama border, supporting the potential for locally
considerable flooding impacts.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Bliss
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...MOB
ATTN...RFC...ORN...FWR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at May 7, 6:06 AM CDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
