IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 9:31 AM EDT026
FXUS63 KIND 061331
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
931 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures returning to near normal Tuesday and Wednesday
- Briefly cooler Friday, then warmer temperatures return this weekend
into early next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
The Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 9AM. There are still
a few pockets of fog, but visibilities have begun to improve with no
sites showing dense fog anymore. Satellite imagery also shows a
gradual dissipation with only a few river valleys showing dense fog.
Made some adjustments to cloud cover with clearing beginning across
the northwest while much of the central and southeastern portions of
the forecast area showing thick and widespread cloud cover. As
clouds continue to clear, temperatures will be able to rise into the
upper 60s to near 70 but may have to make minor adjustments up or
down depending on the timing of the clearing. Otherwise no changes
were needed to the ongoing forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
A large mid/upper-level low currently resides over Indiana, with
very little in the way of forward movement. This feature should
slowly begin to exit eastward today, with weak ridging building in
before a second mid/upper low approaches from the southwest.
THROUGH MORNING
Skies have cleared across the southern portion of our CWA, with very
little wind due to a weak MSLP gradient. Combined with recent
rainfall and abundant boundary layer moisture, this has set the
stage for widespread fog development south of I-70. Some dense fog
has been noted, but is so far fairly isolated. Given the ideal
conditions, there's little reason to think that dense fog won't
become more common. As such, we've issued a Dense Fog Advisory
through 13Z for our southwestern counties.
THIS AFTERNOON
Guidance shows a weak surface low intensifying and wrapping into the
slow-moving mid/upper low during the day today, ending up near
Detroit while completing its occlusion. A few scattered showers or
even a thunderstorm is possible across our far northeastern counties
due to this. However, the surface low is far enough away that most
of our CWA will be dry.
The strengthening surface low to our northeast should also increase
the MSLP gradient enough to promote a west northwesterly breeze of
10 to 15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots.
Moisture within the boundary layer should persist into the
afternoon, and diurnal mixing will lead to cumulus formation.
Cumulus may become a broken layer at times, especially across
southern portions of Indiana.
TONIGHT
Subsidence between mid/upper lows arrives overnight with generally
clearing skies to start. Some high cirrus from the second system
should advance into Indiana from the southwest during the night.
Some fog may develop once again but is expected to be less
widespread due to boundary layer drying.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
Wednesday...
Brief weak upper ridging will help keep Wednesday dry across central
Indiana. Moisture from an upper low to the west will try and work
into the area, and some models generate some QPF during Wednesday.
However, at the moment, feel that forcing will be too weak to bring
rain chances up to mentionable levels. Will go dry during the day.
The upper low will drift east Wednesday night, and a surface cold
front will move into the area from the north. Uncertainty is much
higher in this time frame with questions about moisture availability
and how strong forcing will be. Given this uncertainty, will stick
with consistency and keep the forecast dry.
Highs look to be in the mid 70s, but will have to keep an eye on how
much cloudiness develops.
Thursday...
The upper low to the west will be absorbed into a decent upper
trough moving through the northeastern USA. A cold front will be
near the southern forecast area. Moisture looks better for the upper
trough to work with, so will have some low PoPs around, mainly south
closer to the front. Cooler air working in behind the front will
keep the northern forecast area in the 60s with some 70s south.
Friday and beyond...
Upper ridging will work into the area from the north, keeping
central Indiana dry at least through the day Sunday. Friday morning
will have a cool start, with some temperatures around 40 in the
north. Highs will be in the 60s Friday and in the 70s Saturday and
Sunday.
Uncertainty ramps from Sunday night onward with questions about
where yet another upper low and its associated moisture will end up.
For now will bring in some low PoPs on Monday and Tuesday, with low
confidence. Blended guidance is showing highs in the 80s, but this
may be too warm if more than expected clouds and rain develop.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
Impacts:
- Fog early this morning, especially HUF and BMG.
- Isolated rain shower this morning near IND.
- MVFR or lower ceilings possible this morning.
Discussion:
An mid/upper-level low is currently located over Indiana. Little
surface flow is noted beneath it, with winds generally light out of
the WSW or VRB. Skies have cleared from HUF to IND southward. Light
winds, clear skies, combined with recent rainfall has set the stage
for widespread fog development. Fog has been dense at BMG and a bit
lighter at HUF. IFR/LIFR conditions have been reported at each of
these terminals. Improvement will be quick after 14z.
Fog should diminish rapidly after sunrise, potentially lifting into
an MVFR stratus deck. These cloud should scatter out before renewed
diurnal cumulus development takes place. Guidance suggests that
cumulus may develop into a VFR BKN layer across south central
Indiana. Cumulus diminishes after 00z with some high cirrus
streaming in from the SW overnight, increasing further on Wednesday.
Winds look to pick up after sunrise out of the WNW, strongest from
LAF to IND with speeds reaching 10-15 knots. A few gusts to 20 knots
is possible as well. Winds die down overnight while becoming SW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 9:31 AM EDT---------------
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