CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 2:25 PM EDT589
FXUS61 KCLE 061825
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
225 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will remain over the region today before
finally departing to the east on Wednesday. A cold front will
settle south across the area Wednesday night. High pressure will
build south across the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley Thursday
through at least Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9:40 AM Update:
No notable changes to the forecast with this update. Steady rain
over Northwest OH will pinwheel east-southeast through this
afternoon and evening, with a few low-topped convective showers
likely filling in across Northeast OH and Northwest PA this
afternoon as some sunshine leads to weak instability developing.
Not concerned with severe weather with any storms today.
Previous Discussion:
Yep, there is a still an upper-level low overhead, and yes we
still have have rain in the forecast... We are currently
surrounded by rain showers in nearly all directions, but that
will change the upper-level low pivots eastward, with rain
spreading in from the west this morning and afternoon. Rain
gradually dissipates tonight, leaving us with an abundance of
low stratus.
Several models (such as HRRR, NAM, and RAP) have dense fog
developing over Lake Erie and spreading inland to parts of
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. These models tend to
over-forecast fog over Lake Erie, so have kept it out of the
forecast for now but it's worth monitoring.
The upper-low is packing its bags and heading east on Wednesday
(good riddance). Low stratus that develops tonight could be a
bit stubborn through the Wednesday morning hours but this should
at least partially erode as weak high pressure builds in
overhead. Temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s will allow
for our first pleasant day in awhile.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough axis and surface cold front will drop south across
the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Moisture may be
marginal ahead of and along the front so have capped PoPs at slight
chance with low-end chance PoPs just scraping southeastern zones
Thursday morning. Expect PoPs to taper off by Thursday evening as
the trough cuts off into an upper low across the northeastern CONUS
and surface high pressure builds into the region in the wake of the
cold front. There's a very small chance of a stray shower
periodically clipping southeastern zones through Friday night, but
have maintained a dry forecast from Thursday night through the end
of the period since the majority of deterministic guidance places
precip to the southeast of the local area.
Cold air advection will usher cooler temperatures into the region
for mid to late week. Wednesday night's lows will fall into the 40s
with highs rising into the mid to upper 50s on Thursday. A few spots
across NW OH far southern zones (from roughly Marion to Mt. Vernon)
may touch 60 degrees on Thursday afternoon. Highs on Friday will be
in the slightly warmer low to mid 60s. Overnight lows will be quite
chilly in the upper 30s to lower 40s Thursday night and Friday
night; a few spots may attempt to dip into the mid 30s across
interior NW PA and the higher terrain of inland NE OH Friday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will influence the region through the majority of the
long term period, resulting in dry weather for most (if not all) of
the weekend into early next week. A few guidance members suggest
that a few isolated showers may be possible as a disturbance ripples
across the region during peak diurnal heating on Saturday, but
overall rain chances are too low to warrant PoPs at this point.
Temps begin to rebound this weekend into next week with highs in the
upper 60s to low to mid 70s anticipated for the weekend. A lake
breeze may produce cooler highs along the lakeshore on Sunday. Warm
air advection will allow highs to climb into the upper 70s to lower
80s on Monday. Overnights lows will be well above freezing Saturday
through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Light to moderate stratiform rain is impacting locations from
approximately TDZ-BJJ-PHD points west, with MVFR vsby and low
MVFR and IFR ceilings common. Farther east/northeast, scattered
showers (capable of brief vsby restrictions to locally IFR) are
ongoing amid a mix of high MVFR to VFR ceilings. Have lower
ceilings spreading into CLE, CAK, and YNG through late this
afternoon. Rain will exit to the southeast this evening into
tonight. There may a brief a window where ceilings try
scattering out this evening behind the steadier rain, especially
at TOL and FDY. However, with very moist low-levels any
clearing would quickly give way to lower stratus and fog/mist
overnight tonight into early Wednesday. Confidence in the
magnitude of fog/mist development is uncertain, though there is
relatively higher confidence over and just southeast of Lake
Erie across Northeast OH as winds gradually turn onshore early
Wednesday. Would have included a PROB30 for a few hours at most
sites to depict a window of possible lower vsby when the
greatest concern for fog is...but per NWS directives am not
allowed to, so will leave it to future cycles to determine
when/where lower vsby may be needed as a prevailing group or
TEMPO. All should bounce back to VFR through the day Wednesday
as any fog dissipates and stratus scatter out after sunrise.
Winds range from west across Northwest OH to south across
Northeast OH and Northwest PA at 5 to 12kt early this afternoon.
Winds gradually shift west or west-northwest from west to east
overnight tonight into early Wednesday at 3 to 7kt, and then
persist out of the west-northwest at 5 to 10kt Wednesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings may accompany a cold front Wednesday
night into Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure will meander across the region today, resulting in
southerly winds to 10 to 15 knots becoming northwesterly and
diminishing below 10 knots tonight. West/southwest winds will
develop on Wednesday and winds will likely remain below 10 knots
across the majority of the lake, however winds in the far eastern
basin will likely reach 10 to 15 knots Wednesday afternoon. Flow
becomes northerly in response to a cold front dropping south across
the lake Wednesday night into Thursday and winds will likely
approach 15 to 20 knots in the western basin Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed in the
western basin if winds/waves trend higher in future updates.
Northeast winds to around 15 knots will persist in the western basin
through the remainder of Thursday, however winds in the central and
eastern basins will likely be a few knots lower. Winds across the
whole lake will be out of the northeast and in the 10 to 15 knot
range Friday with west/southwest winds to around 10 knots developing
for Saturday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 2:25 PM EDT---------------
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