PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 3, 2:20 AM CDT299
FXUS63 KPAH 030720
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
220 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and unsettled this weekend. Highs below average through
Monday.
- The set up this weekend is good for cold air funnels thanks to
the cold air aloft. Some thunderstorms may also have small
hail and gusty winds.
- Conditions temporarily dry out early next week before
additional rain chances return mid week and potentially linger
through late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025
An omega block sets up this weekend with an upper level low parked
over us through Monday. With this low comes more precipitation
chances. The best chances are today along with highest PoPs in the
northeast on Sunday and Monday. This weekend is also a good set up
for cold air funnels, especially today, thanks to the cold air
aloft. This also lends itself to the potential for small hail and
gusty winds with some of the taller thunderstorms. Storms will
mainly be diurnal, so timing is mainly late morning through early
evening. Highs will be below normal through Monday with highs
in the 60s today, 50s and 60s Sunday, and 60s again on Monday.
70s return next week.
The upper level low drifts to the northeast on Tuesday and a smaller
packet of energy moves out of the southern Plains through the area
Tuesday night bringing back PoPs through Wednesday. More broad
troughing moves through late Thursday into Friday and might park
itself over us for a bit. There is still high uncertainty though, so
confidence in a continued unsettled pattern is low.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025
A complicated and messy weather setup as a narrow axis of MVFR
cigs associated with an area of SHRA has developed along the
Ohio River. MVFR vsby reductions will also be possible across
all terminals early Saturday morning, followed by additional
scattered SHRA. Widespread MVFR cigs spread across all terminals
after 11-12z, but vsbys will begin to return to VFR. The main
concern in the afternoon then becomes scattered TSRA that will
be capable of producing small hail and cold air funnels. After
sunset, SHRA lingers with MVFR cigs prevailing across the
northern terminals.
Winds will be northwest to north between 7-14 kts with a few
isolated gusts around 20 kts on Saturday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 3, 2:20 AM CDT---------------
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