ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 29, 8:15 PM EDT507
FXUS61 KILN 300015
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
815 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms to continue until a cold front passes
through the area tonight. The front looks to stall out near the Ohio
River overnight into Wednesday, with a general lull in precipitation
chances. The threat for storms increases Thursday as the front lifts
back north across the area, followed by a cold front passage Thursday
night. High pressure looks to build back in by the weekend, offering
a return to drier weather and cooler temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Update was to remove the watch given a continued downturn of
convection in the southeast CWA and isolated non-svr in central OH.
Stratiform rain behind the leading convection will still last for
several hours before clearing behind the cold front. Front is
currently knocking on the far NW and Mercer County. It will be
located near/along the I-71 corridor near 03Z and finally exit the
southeast and Licking County towards 08-09Z. The later exit in the
southeast is due to the front laying out more w-e as the northern
sections of it race ahead of the surface boundary to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes with the frontal
boundary stalled south of the Ohio River Wednesday morning. Model
solutions have generally trended drier and expect most of the area
to remain dry for most of the day Wednesday with a chance for storms
later in the afternoon across the south as moisture begins to advect
back north. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper 60s
north to the mid 70s south.
Mid level flow backs southwesterly with the front lifting back
northward as a warm front Wednesday night, further increasing
shower/storm chances. Instability looks to be limited and elevated.
Expect lows from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A robust short wave moving out of the Ozarks on Thursday will
deamplify as it lifts up the Ohio Valley on Thursday night. At the
surface, a warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night
and there could be some showers and thunderstorms associated with
that. Potential for showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector
will increase with the combination of diurnal heating and the
approach of upper support. Activity will wane somewhat as the short
wave lifts away from the area later Thursday night. The short wave
will take a surface low west and north of the region, but a trailing
cold front will slide into the forecast area Thursday night.
The front will not make it all of the way through the area until
Friday and possibly Friday night when a stronger push comes from a
northern stream trough digging into the region. Showers and some
thunderstorms will continue until this trough passes east of the
area.
With the passage of this trough, the mid levels transition into a
high amplitude, blocky pattern. A closed low will develop out of the
base of the trough that moves through, but there is some potential
that this low then retrogrades back into the region early next week.
With quite a wide range of solutions on where a closed low will
occur, have stayed pretty close to the NBM for now keeping the
region dry.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday and then drop
below normal over the weekend. If the closed low stays east of the
area, then temperatures will rebound early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TS exiting CVG/LUK and ILN with sct TS expected over CMH/LCK over the
next 1-2 hours. Line of TS has prevailing rain behind it with very
few noticeable lightning strikes. Aside from immediate MVFR cigs and
IFR vsbys in TS, vfr conditions will be found across the CWA and
terminals for the remainder of the forecast. Cold front will cross
later this evening, and once the wind shifts rain will be ending.
Low level moisture just has not been noted in the stratiform rain
behind the leading convection, and the MVFR stratus in earlier
forecasts has been removed for the overnight hours. South wind will
return to 12g20kt in the wake of these storms, until the fropa turns
them northwest. This will be near 03Z at KDAY and 04Z for remaining TAF
sites.
OUTLOOK...Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR conditions likely Thursday into Thursday night along with a
chance of thunderstorms. MVFR conditions possible Friday into early
Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Franks/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 29, 8:15 PM EDT---------------
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