LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 27, 9:38 PM EDT157
FXUS63 KLMK 280138
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
938 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A cold front will bring storms to the region Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Some strong to severe storms will be possible, especially
in southern Indiana and north central Kentucky in the afternoon
and evening.
* Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday and
Thursday as Tuesday's cold front stalls over the area. Localized
flooding will be possible under stronger storms, especially
Thursday. Additional strong storms will be possible as well.
* Dry weather is forecast to return for Saturday with temperatures
right around normal for early May.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a mixture of clear
skies with patches of mid- and high-level clouds streaming from west
to east across the region. Temperatures have dropped into the upper
50s and lower 60s in most locations at this hour, though some cooler
spots like the Harrison County mesonet site is already in the low
50s. As the previous discussion mentioned, would expect a pretty
noticeable split in temperatures tonight between ridges/valleys and
urban/rural areas, though this may be tempered somewhat by greater
low-level moisture across southern Kentucky. All in all, a quiet
night is expected across the region, with light east winds gradually
veering to the southeast by morning. A sprinkle or two cannot be
ruled out; however, coverage should be low enough to withhold
mention from the forecast.
The forecast remains on track at this time, with only minor changes
made to incorporate latest obs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
The short term will remain mild and quiet with ridging aloft and
high pressure slowly shifting to the east. Weak vort lobes are
floating through the western portion of the high pressure this
afternoon bringing light rain to western Kentucky. These showers are
expected to dissipate as they continue east. At most, we may see a
sprinkle or virga, given the 20+ T/Td split over the region.
As high pressure moves east, winds will begin to veer to the south
by tomorrow morning. Skies will thin and clear overnight and winds
will become light. Expecting to see good radiational cooling
(especially in the valleys), which could lead to a decent
ridge/valley split in low temperatures if winds remain steady
outside the valleys. Forecasted lows are in the upper 40s and low
50s above the valleys and the low to mid 40s in the valleys. Around
sunrise along the KY/TN border there is a small chance for sprinkle,
given moisture between 600-750mb and isentropic lift. However, there
is still ample dry air below 750mb, where this precip can evaporate.
Will leave a 10% in the grids for this reason.
Increased heights, southerly flow, and mostly clear skies will allow
for temperatures to warm on Monday, bringing highs into the low to
mid 80s. Far northeastern Bluegrass may top out in the upper 70s.
Additionally, dew points will increase from the upper 30s and low
40s to the low 60s, with southerly winds efficiently ushering in
moisture.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
The medium range forecast starts off mainly dry Monday night. An
upper level ridge in place will start to shift off to the east by
Tuesday morning. An organized sfc low over the Upper Midwest will
precede an upper level trough in developing northeast across
portions of the Great Lakes and Ontario. A long trailing cold front
will extend southwest through the central Plains. Therefore, any
convection tied to this system is likely to remain off to our north
and west Monday night. It will be a mild night, with a steady south
wind and lows in the 60s.
On Tuesday, our rain and thunderstorm chances will increase. Tuesday
into Tuesday night, the cold front is forecast to sink southeast
into the Ohio Valley while its forward progression slows with time.
The latest data suggest that moderate (> 1000 J/kg) destabilization
is likely by Tuesday afternoon, but sfc heating may be tempered by
cloud cover. We will only see a modest uptick in southwesterly winds
aloft, with the stronger dynamics and forcing remaining well off to
the northeast. But the CAPE and marginal deep-layer shear (~30 kts)
could support some strong storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The
primary threats would be hail, isolated strong winds, and brief
torrential rainfall. Highs looks to reach 79-84 degrees in most
places.
Rain chances remain relatively high Tuesday night and Wednesday as
the front stalls over the Ohio Valley. Additional scattered showers
and storms are expected, though the risk for severe weather is
fairly low during this time. We will have a fairly moist airmass in
place characterized by a tall, skinny CAPE profile. Some locally
heavy rain is possible, though the showers/storms aren't likely to
be widespread. Expect lows in the 60s, with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s.
A notable upper level shortwave trough rotates northeast over the
Desert Southwest into the southern Plains Tuesday through Wednesday.
Developing low pressure at the sfc is forecast to then lift
northeast over portions of the central Plains by Wednesday night,
pulling the warm front well north of the forecast area. This will
allow us to mostly dry out Wednesday night, with the lull possibly
extending in Thursday morning in some areas. The deepening sfc low
should then continue northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes
Thursday and Thursday night, with strengthening deep SW flow ahead
of a cold front.
The upper shortwave may rotate northeast over the Mid-MS/Lower OH
Valley vicinity on Thursday, providing stronger forcing for ascent
and robust vertical wind shear. Southwesterly moisture transport
also looks pretty healthy on Thursday. The magnitude of instability
is a bit of question mark this far out, but strong to severe storms
are at least on the table for Thursday afternoon and evening.
We should be in cooler post-frontal airmass by Friday, but low rain
chances linger as another upper level trough rotates in from the
northwest. Highs will likely be in the 70s. Lows Saturday morning
could settle into the mid 40s to near 50 as high pressure noses in
from the west. Next weekend continues to look dry and pleasant as
high pressure builds across the region. Look for mostly sunny skies
on Saturday, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period. Mid
and upper-level clouds will continue to stream across the region
this evening, with light easterly winds expected overnight. While
HNB has reported light rain in the last hour, these showers have
been decaying and should not reach terminals farther to the east. By
Monday morning, high pressure will push off to the east, with winds
becoming southerly during the mid-morning hours. Most sites should
see sustained winds around 10 kt during peak heating/mixing
tomorrow, with a few 15-18 kt gusts likely at SDF/BWG/HNB. As low-
level moisture increases tomorrow, a diurnal cu field should develop
in the region, with cloud bases expected around 5 kft.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 27, 9:38 PM EDT---------------
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