LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 24, 6:03 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...330
FXUS64 KLIX 241103
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
603 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Have bumped up rain chances considerably near and west of Baton
Rouge this morning, as convection is moving northward over the
Atchafalaya Basin ahead of a cluster of thunderstorms in the
Lafayette area. We'll have to keep a pretty close eye on it, as
back-building convection in the Lafayette area has produced in
excess of 6 inches of rain since 130 AM CDT at Lafayette Airport.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Upper pattern is pretty much quasi-zonal this morning, with
multiple weak shortwaves moving through both the northern and
southern streams. One such shortwave moved east of the area on
Wednesday morning. There's another shortwave over Texas and a
trough over Nevada and California. Satellite and radar indicate
there is a MCV just west of the local area, which continues to
trigger isolated showers and storms over the extreme western
portion of the CWA early this morning. Early morning temperatures
ranged from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.
Upper ridging will try to build into the area over the next 36
hours, but the latest guidance would indicate that there will be
at least some potential for thunderstorm development during the
daytime hours both today and Friday, especially from the
Interstate 10/12 corridors northward. This is a bit of a
departure from most of the guidance we were looking at 24 hours
ago, when Friday looked dry. Forecast soundings look to be
conducive for convective development, with precipitable water
values near 1.5 inches today and only slightly lower than that on
Friday. There remains the potential for a few strong storms, but
shear continues to be lacking for severe weather. Slow moving
storms will continue to aid the potential for locally heavy
rainfall in a few spots, mainly over the northwest quarter of the
area.
Little day to day change in temperatures, so large adjustments not
necessary, although forecast lows might be a degree or two too
cool.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Upper ridging is expected to cover most of the Gulf for the
weekend into early next week, before troughing over the southern
Rockies reorients the ridge from Florida to the Bay of Campeche.
shortwave energy moving overtop the ridge may be close enough to
the area to bring at least a small threat of thunderstorms to the
area, especially on Sunday. If storms occur, they'd primarily be
during the afternoon hours, with probably isolated areal coverage.
The least likely area for storms would be south of Interstate 10,
closer to the ridging.
Temperatures will continue to show little day to day change in
either highs or lows, with most areas in the mid 80s for highs and
60s for lows, about 5 degrees above normal for late April.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Most terminals at VFR this morning with the exception of KASD at
MVFR and KMCB at IFR. Concern increasing for the threat of TSRA,
especially at KBTR and KMCB. A cluster of TSRA that has been in
the KLFT area most of the night is edging eastward, and could
impact KBTR in the next hour or two. While most terminals should
be MVFR to VFR during the daytime hours, it appears that the
threat of TSRA at most terminals may be higher than what was
anticipated 6 to 12 hours ago. Beyond 00z Friday, threat for TSRA
should diminish. Low conditions (IFR or lower) possible toward
sunrise Friday at KMCB, and perhaps KBTR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Though a few thunderstorms over the protected waters cannot be
ruled out today or Friday, favorable conditions for maritime
operations are expected otherwise. Onshore flow is likely to
continue through the period with wind speeds for the most part
remaining near 10 knots or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 82 65 84 64 / 60 10 40 10
BTR 84 68 86 66 / 70 10 40 0
ASD 84 67 85 66 / 50 10 20 0
MSY 84 70 86 69 / 40 10 10 0
GPT 81 68 82 66 / 20 10 10 0
PQL 83 65 84 64 / 20 0 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
UPDATE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 24, 6:03 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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