WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Apr 25, 3:23 PM CDT135
AGUS74 KWCO 252026
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #057 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
323 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
WHAT...Isolated flash and urban flooding
WHERE...Northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania
WHEN...Through early this evening
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF...1 - 2", locally higher (WPC/HRR)
Rainfall Rates...1"/hr, locally higher (WPC/HRRR)
Soils...50 - 75% (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows...Near normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring a threat for isolated
flash and urban flooding to the area of concern through early this
evening. Infiltration is available to handle additional rainfall, but
may be locally overwhelmed with any higher rainfall rates or training
of thunderstorms. Streamflows are running around normal, suggesting
available channel capacity to handle excess runoff, limiting a
widespread mall stream flood threat. The NWM Short-Range Forecast
continues to signal for rapid-onset flooding in the area of concern,
with the greatest consistency from Mansfield, Ohio into northwest
Pennsylvania. Annual-exceedance probabilities are also lowest in this
area, down to 4%, suggesting that some out-of-banks rises will be
possible. Given the potential for training of thunderstorms and
forecast higher rain rates, some isolated flooding will be possible.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BUF...CTP...ILN...CLE...IWX...IND
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Apr 25, 3:23 PM CDT---------------
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