PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 1:08 PM EDT515
FXUS61 KPBZ 231708
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
108 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation chances remain low through Thursday under high
pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Friday into
Saturday. Above average temperatures expected into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and quiet weather today
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mid-Morning Update: Only a few small changes to the forecast
thus far today to bring dewpoints down and nudge temperatures up
a bit. Previous discussion below:
Minor ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep
the area dry and warm today. Plenty of sunshine will push
temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather through Thursday
- Risk for showers and storms increases Friday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Further 500mb height rises are expected during the daytime on
Thursday as the southern portion of this disjointed upper ridge
strengthens over us. High temperatures are expected to surge
past 80 degrees for much of the area (largely over 60% chance
south of I-80 and largely over 90% chance south of I-70). NBM
probabilities for 85 degrees or more are also notable, with some
hot spots between 40- 60+% mainly tied to the river valleys
south of I-70. Some of these probabilities sneak into the
greater Pittsburgh area as well. Helping this, NBM mean cloud
cover is pretty scant and even a reasonable cloudiest scenario
(90th percentile) still has large swaths of the region largely
cloud free.
An upper trough is expected to be moving eastward through the
central CONUS on Thursday. Increasing moisture and warm
advection ahead of this trough returns shower chances to the
area late Thursday night. The associated surface front is
expected to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region late
Friday bringing the risk for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower chances continue into Saturday
- Trough speed will determine timing of return to above average
temps
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Clustered ensembles bring the upper trough through the region
Saturday but differ on the exact timing due to a signal for a
possibly weaker trough. Showers are expected to shut off from
west to east as the trough exits the region.
500mb heights are expected to be on the rise again Sunday
returning dry weather and warming temperatures. The degree to
which we warm remains in question as clustered ensembles favor
stubbornness from our prior trough in exiting the Eastern
Seaboard as a strong ridge builds across the central CONUS. A
more stubborn, slower trough favors a cooler end to the weekend.
The central CONUS ridge translates eastward to begin next week
and will likely bring dry weather, largely clear skies and
above average temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will ensure VFR conditions throughout the TAF
period. Light wind will remain variable through tomorrow
morning. During the day tomorrow, wind will remain light (4-6
knots) coming out of the south-southeast.
Outlook...
Shower and thunderstorm chances with rising restriction
probabilities will accompany the passage of a low pressure
system starting late Friday night into Saturday morning. There
is high confidence in VFR and dry weather developing by Sunday
under drier northwest flow and building high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/22
NEAR TERM...22/AK
SHORT TERM...22/AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Rackley/Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 1:08 PM EDT---------------
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