JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 4:01 PM EDT784
FXUS63 KJKL 232001
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
401 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms will be around the area this afternoon
and tonight - mainly south of the Mountain Parkway.
- More widespread showers/storms are possible on Thursday, Friday,
and Saturday, with the best chances on Friday afternoon and
Friday night. Severe storms are not expected.
- Normal to above normal temperatures are expected through the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 950 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
13Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over northeastern Kentucky with a nearby front to the south
supporting some low clouds around there. The high is keeping
skies sunny for most of the area along with light winds.
Currently, after a chilly start, temperatures are running in the
upper 50s to lower 60s most places. Meanwhile, dewpoints range
from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s in the southeast. Have
updated the forecast mainly to remove the morning valley fog and
add in the latest obs/trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also
touch up the PoPs this afternoon and evening per the latest CAMs
consensus guidance. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 655 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
Refreshed T/Td grids incorporating the latest observations. No
major changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 414 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
High clouds continue to dissipate over SE Kentucky from a stalled
cold front over VA and TN. Later today, this front will progress
into the area as a warm front this afternoon bringing with it
shower and thunderstorm chances beginning around 18Z/2PM EDT.
These storm chances generally remain along and south of the Hal
Rogers/KY-80 corridor. Temperatures today climb into the upper
70s to low 80s under light and variable winds. Showers and storms
look to taper off heading into this evening with temperatures
cooling into the 50s.
Thursday, trapped moisture from a stalled front located in the
lower Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valley region will advect north
with some assistance from an offshore high, south of Bermuda.
Showers and thunderstorms will occur across all of eastern
Kentucky through Thursday. A general tenth to a quarter inch of
rain can be expected with areas seeing intense downpours or
training storms approaching half an inch through the day.
Temperatures generally remain in the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Friday, as Eastern
Kentucky will remain firmly positioned within the warm sector out
ahead of an approaching storm system. Relative to the disturbance
responsible for Thursday's activity, Friday's forecast features
better mid/upper atmospheric support and a more clearly defined
surface cyclone. This favors more widespread convective coverage and
a prolonged period of rain chances stretching from Friday morning
through Saturday afternoon. As a midlevel trough approaches the Ohio
River Valley and the surface low pressure system moves into the
Great Lakes, flow in the lower half of the atmospheric column will
shift towards the southwest and intensify. This will lead to
increasingly effective moisture transport, but will also work to
mitigate the severe weather risk. PWAT values are forecast to rise
to well above climatological normals on Friday and remain elevated
overnight. The mean PWAT value resolved in the LREF ensemble
guidance is about 1.25 inches, but deterministic models suggest that
values could exceed 1.5 inches in western and northern portions of
the forecast area. This reinforces the notion that Friday's rain
could be heavy at times, and WPC has maintained the Marginal (Level
1/5) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Friday and Friday Night across
all of Eastern Kentucky. Antecedent dryness will prevent widespread
significant river rises, but more localized urban and flash flooding
cannot be completely ruled out in any location that sees multiple
rounds of heavy rain between Thursday, Friday, and Friday night. The
current storm total QPF generally calls for between half an inch to
an inch of rain, with the potential for pockets of locally higher
totals noted. Remember, as always, turn around, don't drown!
The good news regarding Friday's wet forecast is that the associated
cloud cover will mitigate temperatures and thus instability. Mostly
cloudy skies throughout the day and the presence of precipitation in
the morning will limit the amount of diurnal warming that is
realized. Highs are forecast to remain in the 70s across the entire
forecast area, which will reduce the amount of energy for Friday's
storms. The highest CAPE values resolved in the currently-available
forecast guidance are near 1000 K/kg, and the primary threat with
Friday's activity will come from the previously-discussed heavy
rainfall. The enhanced cloud coverage will insulate Friday night's
temperatures to near 60 degrees, and rain chances will continue into
Saturday morning as the cold front approaches.
Saturday's forecast will fall in the form of a NW to SE gradient as
the aforementioned front finally pushes through. Our northwestern
counties in the Bluegrass region will be cooler in its wake, with
highs in the mid 60s and clearing skies by evening. South of the
Mountain Parkway, highs will remain near 70 degrees and the showery
activity will persist for longer. Overnight, a cooler continental
airmass begins to advect in as winds turn northerly. Expect lows in
the 40s, with ridge-valley temperature splits possible. Given the
wet grounds, fog could form in valley locations if the clouds clear
out. Confidence in this is not high enough to explicitly mention in
the grids for now, but valley fog could be included in future
forecast issuances.
Sunday's forecast temperatures look similar to Saturday's, but skies
will be much clearer in response to a nearby surface high. Midlevel
ridging and the surface high look to propagate eastward by early
next week, which will kickstart another warming trend ahead of the
next shower system. Highs are poised to warm into the 80s across the
entire forecast area by next Tuesday, which will prime the area for
renewed shower and thunderstorm chances as a cold front approaches
on Wednesday. Overall, April is poised to end on a warm and wet
note, and interests with outdoor springtime activities planned are
encouraged to remain weather aware over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
In general, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Weak return flow from the south will allow a stalled front to move
north as a warm front, bringing shower chances to TAF sites KSME
and KLOZ this afternoon. A PROB30 group was used for this window
of shower activity. Additionally, KJKL and KSJS have low end -SHRA
chances but remain below 20 percent, so was not mentioned in the
TAFs. There may be chances of thunderstorms, south of TAF sites
KSME and KLOZ during the period of peak (20-24Z) but the
probability of a thunderstorm on station was at or less than 20
percent so it was left out of the TAFs, at this time. Winds will
remain light and variable throughout the period, except near
showers and thunderstorms, where winds could become gusty and
erratic.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 4:01 PM EDT---------------
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