MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 18, 6:41 AM CDT ...New Aviation...044
FXUS64 KMOB 181141
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Over the weekend...
Dry and warm weather prevails through the weekend as upper ridging
remains in place over the region. High temperatures top out in the
lower to middle 80's for most locations each day, with a few
interior spots reaching upper 80's today and Saturday. Overnight
lows fall into the lower to middle 60's for most spots each night.
Some patchy fog remains possible through early this morning in
the Florida Panhandle and south-central Alabama, with any fog
quickly dissipating after sunrise. Tonight into Saturday morning
is a bit trickier for fog potential as stronger low level winds
around 10 to 20 knots between 925 and 850mb evident on CAM
guidance may make it difficult to fully decouple the boundary
layer. If it can, areas of dense fog would be likely for much of
the forecast area, particularly along and east of the I-65
corridor. If not, we would end up with a mostly low stratus deck
over the area. Regardless, confidence is high enough to continue
carrying patchy to areas of dense fog in the forecast for the
aforementioned areas. A low risk of rip currents today becomes
moderate Saturday and a high risk by Saturday night into Sunday.
MM/25
Sunday night through Thursday...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeastward over the
Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region Sunday night and
Monday, with an associated weak cold front approaching our region
from the northwest. A slight increase in deep moisture and
southwesterly flow aloft will then remain over our region through
next week as a series of upper shortwave energy and impulses
traverse the area. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will return through most of next week, with perhaps numerous
coverage over the inland portions of southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama Monday and Tuesday afternoons. However, despite
the increased chances of rain, the total expected rainfall should
be minimal. At this time, we are only expecting between 0.2 to
near one inch of rain next week northwest of I-65, and below 0.2
inches to the southeast. A High Rip Current Risk will remain
through Monday night. Temperatures will continue to trend above
normal with highs in 80s and lows in the 60s. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
VFR flight category continues to prevail across most of the region
this morning. Localized VLIFR/LIFR visibility and ceiling is
however occurring across south-central Alabama into the Florida
Panhandle where patchy fog has formed. This fog will lift quickly
after sunrise. A more favorable night for fog development is
expected tonight into Saturday morning with areas of dense fog
potentially reducing ceiling and visibility to VLIFR/LIFR flight
category by late tonight. Winds will remain southeasterly through
the period, increasing to around 10 to 15 knots around mid-
morning gusting to near 20 knots. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
A light to moderate southeasterly flow pattern will persist
through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will gradually
build up to 4 to 6 feet by Sunday before slowly subsiding through
next week. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 81 65 82 65 82 66 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 20
Pensacola 77 66 79 66 79 68 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Destin 77 66 78 67 79 68 79 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Evergreen 86 59 86 60 85 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20
Waynesboro 88 64 87 61 85 64 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 60 30
Camden 85 60 85 61 84 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 30
Crestview 84 58 85 60 84 59 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 18, 6:41 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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