PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 10:32 AM EDT182
FXUS61 KPBZ 161432
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1032 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather expected early afternoon with building high
pressure. Frost Advisory in effect tonight into tomorrow
morning for areas south of Pittsburgh. Rain and thunderstorm
chances increase Saturday with an approaching cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers ending this morning
- Wind gusts in the higher terrain will subside early afternoon
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mid-morning Update: Very few changes to the forecast this
morning as things are well on track. The morning sounding noted
ample moisture near 850mb tied to our low-level stratocu. Some
convergence off of the lake is leading to light snow showers
this morning across far northern Venango and Forest Counties.
Surface high pressure filtering in today will increase
subsidence and is expected to help erode our clouds. Previous
discussion below:
Light rain and snow showers will taper off between 8am and 11am
today with building high pressure from the west. Clouds will
continue to erode from southwest to northeast with increasing
low and mid-level subsidence.
Gusty WNW wind will continue, though wind speeds will be less
than seen on Tuesday. Areas across eastern Tucker county WV will
likely continue to see gusts to 55 mph through early afternoon.
The pressure gradient will begin to relax later in the day under
the building high, with wind gusts diminishing.
High temperatures are expected to be around 10 degrees below
average under northwest flow aloft.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Frost Advisory tonight for areas south of Pittsburgh
- Gradual warming trend
- Dry until shower chances return Thursday night and Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will slide east across the Upper Ohio Valley
region through Thursday, maintaining dry weather. Clear skies
and calm winds are expected tonight with the high centered over
the area. This should result in radiational cooling, with frost
formation. Issued a Frost Advisory where the growing season has
begun (most areas near and south of I-70.)
Rising 500 mb heights and warm advection should return
temperatures closer to seasonable levels by Thursday. A weak
shortwave trough is expected to cross the region Thursday night
into Friday, as a surface warm front lifts northeastward. Shower
chances return as this wave crosses, though rain chances will be
limited with a lack of deep layer moisture. Generally dry
weather should return Friday afternoon as this wave/surface
front exits. Warm advection should result in high temperatures
from 10 to 15 degrees above average.
Another shortwave is expected to advance out of the Midwest
region Friday night, as its associated surface cold front
approaches the region. Shower chances will increase again,
mainly late, with the approach of the shortwave.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday
- Periodic shower chances continue through early next week
- Above average temperatures through much of the period
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate the initial shortwave will cross the
region Saturday, with showers expected. A few thunderstorms are
possible with diurnal instability. Uncertainty exists, though
current model projections indicate shear will be in place as
well. The surface cold front will also move across the region
Saturday, and this could be the focus for some strong to severe
storms. The new day 4 SPC outlook has the area highlighted for
this potential south of I-80.
For the remainder of the weekend, operational models differ on
the positioning of the front, due to differences in the upper
air pattern. Most ensembles favor some upper ridging across the
area on Sunday (ahead of a midwest trough) which would drive
the surface front to the south. Outlier solutions, such as the
00Z operational GFS, keep SW flow aloft with the cold front
stalling across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Stayed close to
the ensemble blend with uncertainty in the Sunday forecast.
The midwestern trough is progged to advance eastward early next
week, as a surface cold front crosses the region. This will
maintain shower chances Monday into early Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stratocu will likely persist for areas north of PIT will
gradually erode between 15Z to 18Z today with the increasing
subsidence under a ridge. Winds will remain gusty as the low
levels remain mixed, but trend down over the period before
finally becoming light with decoupling this evening.
Outlook...
Dry weather continues on Thursday with building high pressure
before another round of precipitation and restriction potential
returns later on Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
PAZ029-031-075.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
OHZ057>059-068-069.
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
WVZ003-004-012-021-509>511.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/AK
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 10:32 AM EDT---------------
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