JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 1:52 PM EDT505
FXUS63 KJKL 161752
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
152 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After one more relatively cool day, today, warmer temperatures
will return and carry through the weekend.
- Frost development is expected for valley locations tonight,
mainly east of the I-75 corridor.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast on
Saturday and linger at times through Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 151 PM EDT WED APR 16 2025
Have made a couple updates since this morning, all very minor.
Mainly loaded in the observations to make sure the near term
forecast is on track with the current conditions. This resulted in
very little change. Also sent out a new forecast package after
9am to remove any frost wording. All updates have been published
and sent to NDFD/web.
UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the southwest of eastern
Kentucky but for the most part dominating the weather for this
part of the state. This has made for light winds, dry dewpoints,
and mostly clear skies through the night. The mid level clouds
that have moved through the area this night, in the remaining low
level cyclonic flow centered northeast of the JKL CWA, did
interrupt the rational cooling for a time. As such, temperatures
currently vary from the mid 30s in the sheltered valleys to the
mid 40s on the ridges - and in the more open areas. Meanwhile,
amid light west winds, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid
30s. Still expect some patchy frost to develop in some of the
valleys early this morning.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term period. They
all depict the gradual retreat of a northeast 5h trough away from
Kentucky today. This will mean loosening northwest mid-level flow
into tonight. For Thursday, ridging starts to edge into the area
from the southwest while a wave works into the state through the
afternoon in increasingly zonal mid-level flow. The still rather
small model spread supported using the NBM as the starting point
with minimal adjustments through the period - mainly to include
more of a terrain distinction to the temperatures tonight and
drier afternoon RH today and Thursday.
Sensible weather features a warmup starting today and continuing
into Thursday as high pressure pushes through the area and moves
off to the east to end the period. This will mean a dry and mostly
sunny afternoon followed by a clear and cool night, tonight.
Conditions will be favorable for radiational cooling tonight and
expect a moderate to large ridge to valley temperature difference
to develop - allowing for areas of frost in the valleys for most
of the CWA east of the I-75 corridor with patchy valley frost to
the west. A Frost Advisory in now in effect for these eastern
counties later tonight into Thursday morning. Thursday will be a
notch or two warmer but with more clouds and even some scattered
showers possible in the afternoon as a developing sfc warm front
moves through the region.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adding more terrain distinction to the temperatures tonight and
tamping down the dewpoints/RH each afternoon though Thursday. As
for PoPs - added some details from the CAMs on Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
The forecast period will begin with surface high pressure situated
over the area; however, a warm front will lift northeast through
region overnight Friday. This will usher WAA advection into the
region allowing for temperatures to climb into the upper-70s to low
to mid-80s through the weekend. The surface low, responsible for the
warm front, will track into the Great Lakes dragging a cold front
closer to the forecast area. As this front approaches, showers and
storms will be possible through the weekend but models have the
front stalling out leaving thunderstorm chances into early Monday
morning. The SPC has a Day 4 Outlook for this cold front on Saturday
as some of the storms along the boundary could become strong to
severe.
Another surface low is expected to develop on the tail end of the
abandoned surface boundary on Sunday and is forecast to lift
northeast into the Great Lakes by early Monday morning. This
secondary system will drag another cold front through the area
Monday. The front will slowly cross through the region before
exiting the area for early Tuesday morning. Surface high pressure
will build back into the region behind the exiting front; however,
model agreement degrades heading into Wednesday leading to a lack of
confidence for mid-week.
Overall, the forecast period is expected to be a rather wet and
stormy period. Temperatures are forecast to be range from the mid-
70s to mid-80s with overnight lows ranging from the upper-40s to low-
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A few fair
weather CU can be spotted across portions of eastern Kentucky this
afternoon. By this evening these will dissipate while some high
cirrus clouds will begin to work in from the NW after 21Z. Kept
sky cover generally scattered through much of the TAF period,
though do expect clouds to thicken to a BKN layer first at KSME
and KLOZ near the end of the TAF period tomorrow, spreading
eastward just after 18Z. Some decent daytime mixing is allowing
for gusts generally between 15 and 20kts this afternoon, under NW
flow. These gusts will taper off as the sun sets, giving way to
light and variable conditions during the overnight.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-085>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JMW
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 1:52 PM EDT---------------
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