JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 4:50 AM EDT906
FXUS63 KJKL 160850
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a cool-down for today and Wednesday, warmer temperatures
will return and carry through the weekend.
- Frost development is possible in some locations tonight and
again Wednesday night.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast on
Saturday and linger at times through Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 125 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 613 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
Updated hourly T/Td & sky grids with the latest observations and
blended with the latest model data. No major changes were made to
the current forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 420 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
A strong low pressure system currently moving towards Maine is the
focus for the next 48 hours. It will continue to shift east,
stalling across the Atlantic seaboard, but our location on the
western side of the trough will mean strong CAA into the region
through the day Wednesday and into Thursday as well. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure will be passing through the state during that
time too. For sensible weather, this will lead to mostly clear
conditions starting tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
Stable conditions, light winds, and CAA will all lead to a cool
overnight period both tonight and Wednesday night. While most
locations should remain above freezing, we could get cold enough in
some areas for frost development in both nights. The frost was more
patchy to areas, and not widespread, so kept mention in the HWO and
will highlight in the key messages overnight, but not enough
coverage to warrant a frost advisory, and not cold enough to warrant
a freeze warning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
The forecast period will begin with surface high pressure situated
over the area; however, a warm front will lift northeast through
region overnight Friday. This will usher WAA advection into the
region allowing for temperatures to climb into the upper-70s to low
to mid-80s through the weekend. The surface low, responsible for the
warm front, will track into the Great Lakes dragging a cold front
closer to the forecast area. As this front approaches, showers and
storms will be possible through the weekend but models have the
front stalling out leaving thunderstorm chances into early Monday
morning. The SPC has a Day 4 Outlook for this cold front on Saturday
as some of the storms along the boundary could become strong to
severe.
Another surface low is expected to develop on the tail end of the
abandoned surface boundary on Sunday and is forecast to lift
northeast into the Great Lakes by early Monday morning. This
secondary system will drag another cold front through the area
Monday. The front will slowly cross through the region before
exiting the area for early Tuesday morning. Surface high pressure
will build back into the region behind the exiting front; however,
model agreement degrades heading into Wednesday leading to a lack of
confidence for mid-week.
Overall, the forecast period is expected to be a rather wet and
stormy period. Temperatures are forecast to be range from the mid-
70s to mid-80s with overnight lows ranging from the upper-40s to low-
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with a period
of clouds moving through at 6k feet AGL pre-dawn then clearing. Just
some high cirrus clouds will begin to work in from the NW after
20Z, as well. Look for mixing increasing around or shortly after
15Z today leading to afternoon winds out of the NW at 10 kts or so
for all terminals - tapering off by sunset.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-085>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 4:50 AM EDT---------------
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