ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 6:52 AM EDT689
FXUS61 KILN 161052
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
652 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure builds across the region today offering dry and
sunny conditions. A southerly flow develops Thursday bringing warmer
temperatures and the possibility of a few showers overnight. Breezy
conditions return Friday with an increased chance for showers and
thunderstorms with the approach of a front Friday night and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers have ended but a few clouds linger over the southern Scioto
Valley as a sheared out short wave moves away from the area. These
clouds will give way to mostly sunny skies as high pressure begins to
build into the area. Expect a few cumulus clouds during the day along
with some some high level clouds spilling into the area later this
afternoon.
Early morning temperatures in the mid and upper 30s may lead to
patchy frost development in protected locations. Readings warm to
high temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to the upper 50s.
Northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph will diminish later this afternoon
as the pressure gradient continues to relax.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure to build east across the area tonight. Any
diurnal cumulus clouds that develop will dissipate quickly leaving
clear skies this evening followed by some high level clouds overnight.
A temperature gradient is expected across the area with lows from the
lower and middle 30s in the northeast to the upper 30s southwest.
Light winds and cold temperatures will lead to frost development
across all but the southwest.
Surface high moves off to the east with a southerly flow developing
Thursday. Weak shortwave rides a mid level ridge with a low level
jet developing to our west. Pcpn that develops to our west will
generally weaken as it approaches ILN/s area Thursday afternoon.
Forecast soundings show a dry low level, so any pcpn will likely be
limited to a few sprinkles or very light rain showers late in the
west. Therefore, have limited pops to slight chance across the west.
High temperatures to warm to readings in the lower and middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper ridge moves east from the Ohio Valley to begin the period and
is followed by deep sw flow. On Friday, a surface low will move into
the Great Lakes region from the Midwest, with a trailing cold front
extending sw through the St. Louis area. Overnight, rain chances lie
nw of the I-71 corridor as the surface low tracks to the east and
the northern edge of the front moves east. By Saturday, the front is
still located near St. Louis but the northern extent has laid out
wsw-ene through northern Ohio, with shower/tstorms found along it
and in the nw 2/3 of CWA.
Beyond Saturday, significant divergence in the model solutions are
present and forecast confidence drops. However on Sunday, the rain
footprint from the diverging solutions still support continued
rainfall over the bulk of the CWA with the exception of the se, and
potentially persistent showers and storms in the nw. By the time
Monday roll around, GFS and Euro are polar opposites in the mass
fields, though it looks to be dry by both standards through the
remainder of the forecast period.
NBM is holding on to precip from late Sun through Mon and then
starts to back off on it from w-e overnight Mon - about 18-24 hours
too late per my estimation. However, my estimation is low confidence
and will not adjust NBM initialized forecast.
Friday will be the warmest as readings reach near 80 and overnight
lows drop only to the lower 60s. Temperatures moderate Sat/Sun,
moreso in the n/nw where rain limits highs. This moderation is not
overly strong, with readings Sun-Tue lingering in the lower 60s
north to upper 60s/low 70s south. Lows in the 50s Sat night will
drop into the 40s for Mon/Tue nights.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds have cleared and with light winds patchy fog has developed at
KLUK and KILN. The fog will improve quickly with mainly clear skies
with a few cumulus clouds developing the day.
Along with these cumulus clouds expect some high level clouds to
spill into the area this afternoon into tonight.
Northwest to west winds at 10 kts or less this morning look to pick
up a little to 10-12 kts during the day and then become light and
variable tonight as the surface high builds into the region.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible along with a chance of
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
KYZ097>100.
IN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
INZ050-058-059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 6:52 AM EDT---------------
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